With Russian forces poised to attack Ukraine, Turkish-made drones are set to face a big test in battle as well as a challenge to Turkey’s relations with Russia. Despite warnings from Moscow, Turkish firms have continued to supply Kyiv with armed drones. Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul.
…

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson apologized before Parliament Monday following the release of a report concluding that parties held at the prime minister’s official residence during the country’s COVID-19 lockdown represented “serious failures” to observe the standards set by the government.

The report, conducted by senior civil servant Sue Gray, examined a series of gatherings that had been held at No. 10 Downing St. in 2020 and 2021 when much of Britain was under strict pandemic restrictions.

“The gatherings in question represent a serious failure to observe not just the high standards expected of those working at the heart of government, but also of the standards expected of the entire British population at the time,” Gray said in the report.

She also made note of “excessive consumption of alcohol” at the gatherings, which she said “is not appropriate in a professional workplace at any time.”

Gray said some of the gatherings “should not have been allowed to develop as they did,” and others should not have been held at all. She looked specifically at four gatherings, saying she withheld comment on 12 other events that the metropolitan police were investigating to determine if laws were broken.

In his comments to Parliament, Johnson apologized for “the things we simply didn’t get right” and “for the way that this matter has been handled.” He said he understood people’s anger and accepted Gray’s findings “in full,” as well as “her recommendation that we must learn from these events and act now.”

Johnson had previously said that no rules had been broken. He has dismissed calls from lawmakers — even those in his own party — to resign.

Some information for this report was provided by The Associated Press and Reuters. 
…

The latest developments in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine:       

• The U.S. plans to confront Russia over its actions along Ukraine’s border at a Monday meeting of the United Nations Security Council.    

• NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Sunday the Western military alliance has no intention of sending troops to Ukraine if Russia invades its former Soviet republic.    

• Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told the “Fox News Sunday” show that a Russian invasion “could happen, really, at any time.”  

• The West is demanding that Russia pull its troops and weapons from the Ukraine border, while Moscow is pushing for NATO to curtail its operations in Eastern and Central Europe. Russia also insists the Western defensive alliance reject Ukraine’s membership bid, a move the United States calls a “non-starter.”   

* According to U.S. and Ukrainian estimates, Russia has amassed about 127,000 troops along its border with Ukraine, including in Belarus and in occupied Crimea.   

Some information in this report came from The Associated Press, Reuters and Agence France-Presse. 
…

The United Nations Security Council is due to discuss the crisis along the Russia-Ukraine border Monday in a session the United States called to address Russia’s deployment of more than 100,000 soldiers in the region and “other destabilizing acts aimed at Ukraine.” 

The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said on ABC’s “This Week” show Sunday that the council will press Russia to justify its massing of troops.

“Our voices are unified in calling for the Russians to explain themselves,” she said.  

Russia has dismissed the U.S. move, with its Deputy U.N. Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy calling the session a public relations “stunt.” 

Russia is one of five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and can use its veto power to block any punitive action by the council against Russia. 

Monday’s meeting is the latest round of talks about the conflict amid efforts to find a diplomatic resolution. The United States has threatened to impose sharp economic sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine, and has ruled out Russian demands that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization withdraw troops from eastern Europe and prevent Ukraine from joining the alliance. 

Russia, which annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014, says it has no plans to invade Ukraine again. But Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Sunday that Russia will ask NATO and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to clarify whether they intend to implement key security commitments.  

“We are sending an official request to our colleagues in (NATO) and the OSCE, urging them to explain how they intend to implement (their) commitment not to strengthen their security at the expense of the security of others,” Lavrov said on state television.  

NATO has ramped up its military presence in member countries bordering Russia, but NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Sunday that NATO has no intention of sending troops to Ukraine if Russia invades the former Soviet republic. 

“We have no plans to deploy NATO combat troops to Ukraine…we are focusing on providing support,” Stoltenberg told the BBC. “There is a difference between being a NATO member and being a strong and highly valued partner as Ukraine.” 

In the United States, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told the “Fox News Sunday” show that a Russian invasion “could happen, really, at any time.” Kirby said Russian President Vladimir Putin “continues to add troops” just across the border from Ukraine.  

Kirby rejected imposing sanctions ahead of a possible Russian invasion or naming which Russian financial institutions the West would target.  

“Once you try that,” Kirby said, “the deterrent effect is gone.”   

Oksana Markarova, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United States, told CBS News’s “Face the Nation” show that Ukraine wants sanctions imposed now against Russia, as well if Moscow invades.  

“We ask both,” Markarova said. “Russia is there. Russia illegally occupied Crimea. Russia illegally occupies together with their controlled people, parts of Donetsk and Luhansk territories, and they didn’t change their behavior during the eight years. So yes, we believe the basis for sanctions is there.”  

“The reason why Putin attacked us (in taking Crimea) is not because he wants Ukraine, or only Ukraine,” Markarova said. “The reason he attacked us is because we have chosen to be a democracy and we have the Euro-Atlantic and European aspirations.”  

Two key lawmakers on the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Democratic chairman Robert Menendez and top Republican James Risch, told CNN’s “State of the Union” show that they are close to reaching a bipartisan agreement on sanctions they said would “crush” Russia’s economy if it attacks Ukraine.  

Several countries, including the U.S., have shipped weapons to the Kyiv government to help it defend itself.  

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due to visit the region this week and plans to speak to Putin by phone.  

Johnson is considering doubling British troops in the Baltic countries and sending defensive weapons to Estonia, his office said.  

Some information for this report came from Reuters. 
…

The United Nations Security Council meets Monday to discuss Russia’s buildup of more than 100,000 troops along Ukraine’s border. Western and Ukrainian officials continue to be on alert for a possible invasion. VOA’s Arash Arabasadi has more.
…

French President Emmanuel Macron has told his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi that a deal lifting sanctions on Iran in return for curbs on its nuclear activities is still possible but talks need to accelerate, Macron’s office said on Sunday.

France, Germany and Britain, known as the E3, and the United States are trying to save the 2015 Vienna agreement with Iran, but Western diplomats have said negotiations, which have been in their eighth round since Dec. 27, were moving too slowly.

Iran has rejected any deadline imposed by Western powers.

“The President of the Republic reiterated his conviction that a diplomatic solution is possible and imperative, and stressed that any agreement will require clear and sufficient commitments from all the parties,” the Elysee palace said in a statement after a telephone call with Raisi on Saturday.

“Several months after the resumption of negotiations in Vienna, he insisted on the need to accelerate in order to quickly achieve tangible progress in this framework,” it added.

“He underlined the need for Iran to demonstrate a constructive approach and return to the full implementation of its obligations,” it said.

Macron also asked for the immediate release of Franco-Iranian academic Fariba Adelkhah, re-imprisoned in January, and French tourist Benjamin Briere, who was sentenced on Tuesday to eight years in prison on spying charges.
…

Manchester United player Mason Greenwood was arrested on suspicion of rape and assault on Sunday after a woman posted visual and audio allegations on social media of an incident.

United said the 20-year-old forward “will not return to training or play matches until further notice.”

The police did not name Greenwood but the statement about the investigation was provided after inquiries about the footballer.

“Greater Manchester Police were made aware earlier today of online social media images and videos posted by a woman reporting incidents of physical violence,” the force said in a statement. “An investigation was launched and following enquiries we can confirm a man in his 20s has since been arrested on suspicion of rape and assault.  

“He remains in custody for questioning. Enquiries are ongoing.”  

The allegations were posted early Sunday morning on the Instagram account of a woman who uploaded images of bruising to her body and bleeding from her lip. A voice note purporting to be of an attack was also posted. The posts were all deleted from the social media site but were widely shared.

“Manchester United does not condone violence of any kind,” the club said.

Nike, one of Greenwood’s sponsors, expressed its unease.

“We are deeply concerned by the disturbing allegations and will continue to closely monitor the situation,” the sportswear firm said in a statement.

Greenwood, who progressed through the United academy into the first team, has scored six goals this season. He extended his contract last year through 2025.

Greenwood made his England debut in September 2020 but was sent home from Iceland for a disciplinary breach after the game. He hasn’t played since for Gareth Southgate’s side.
…

The Northern Irish city of Londonderry began commemorations Sunday of one of the darkest days in modern UK history when, 50 years ago, British troops without provocation killed 13 unarmed civil rights protesters. 

The anniversary of “Bloody Sunday” comes with Northern Ireland’s fragile peace destabilized by Brexit, and with families of the victims despondent over whether the soldiers involved will ever face trial. 

Charlie Nash saw his 19-year-old cousin William Nash killed as members of the British Parachute Regiment fired more than 100 high-velocity rounds on January 30, 1972, at the demonstrators in Londonderry, known as Derry to pro-Irish nationalists. 

“We thought there might be rioting, but nothing, nothing like what happened. We thought at first they were rubber bullets,” Nash, now 73, told AFP. 

“But then we saw Hugh Gilmour [one of six 17-year-old victims] lying dead. We couldn’t take it in. Everyone was running,” he said. 

“It’s important for the rest of the world to see what they done to us that day. But will we ever see justice? Never, especially not from Boris Johnson.” 

Amnesty? 

The UK prime minister this week called Bloody Sunday a “tragic day in our history”.

But his government is pushing legislation that critics say amounts to an amnesty for all killings during Northern Ireland’s three decades of sectarian unrest, including by security forces. 

Thirteen protesters died on Bloody Sunday, when the paratroopers opened fire through narrow streets and across open wasteland. 

Some of the victims were shot in the back, or while on the ground, or while waving white handkerchiefs. 

At the entrance to the city’s Catholic Bogside area stands a wall that normally proclaims in large writing: “You are now entering Free Derry.” 

This weekend the mural says: “There is no British justice.” 

Several hundred people, including relatives of the victims, on Sunday retraced the fateful 1972 march, walking in somber silence under a leaden grey sky ahead of a late morning memorial service. 

Children bearing white roses and portraits of the victims joined the poignant procession.

“I’m here to honor the people who were murdered by the British state who were trying to achieve their civil rights,” said Michael Roach, 67, a Texan with Irish roots. 

“There will be no justice until the paratroopers are held to justice for murder.” 

‘Unjustifiable’ 

After an initial government report largely exonerated the paratroopers and authorities, a landmark 12-year inquiry running to 5,000 pages found in 2010 that the victims were unarmed and posed no threat, and that the soldiers’ commander on the ground violated his orders. 

“We in the inquiry came to the conclusion that the shootings were unjustified and unjustifiable,” its chairman Mark Saville, a former judge and member of the UK House of Lords, told BBC radio on Saturday. 

“And I do understand, people feel that in those circumstances justice has yet to be done,” he said, while expressing concern that with the surviving soldiers now elderly, the government should have launched any prosecution “a very long time ago”. 

Then as now, Londonderry was a largely Catholic city. But housing, jobs and education were segregated in favor of the pro-British Protestant minority. 

Simmering tensions over the inequality made it the cradle of the “Troubles” in Northern Ireland starting in the late 1960s, which finally ended with the 1998 Good Friday Agreement.

‘Reckless’ 

The UK’s divorce from the European Union has unsettled the fragile post-1998 consensus. 

Protestant unionists want Johnson’s government to scrap a protocol governing post-Brexit trade for Northern Ireland, which treats the province differently from the UK mainland (comprising England, Scotland and Wales). 

The government, which is in protracted talks with the EU on the issue, is sympathetic to their demands. 

Heading into regional elections in May, some nationalists hope that Brexit could help achieve what the Irish Republican Army (IRA) never did — a united Ireland, a century after the UK carved out a Protestant statelet in the north. 

Sinn Fein, which was once the political wing of the IRA, is running ahead of the once dominant unionists in opinion polls. 

“Northern Ireland finds itself again in the eye of a political storm where we appear to be collateral damage for a prime minister whose future is hanging in the balance,” said professor Deirdre Heenan, a Londonderry resident who teaches social policy at Ulster University. 

“The government’s behavior around the peace process has been reckless in the extreme,” she added. 

Protestant hardliners have issued their own reminders of where they stand: leading up to the anniversary, Parachute Regiment flags have been flying in one unionist stronghold of Londonderry, to the revulsion of nationalists. 

“How can they do that, this weekend of all weekends?” asked George Ryan, 61, a tour guide and local historian. 

 
…

NATO has no plans to deploy combat troops to non-NATO member Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Sunday. 

Asked on BBC Television whether he would rule out putting NATO troops in Ukraine if Russia does invade, Stoltenberg said: “We have no plans to deploy NATO combat troops to Ukraine … we are focusing on providing support.” 

“There is a difference between being a NATO member and being a strong and highly valued partner as Ukraine. There’s no doubt about that.” 
…

Russia says it will relocate naval exercises off the coast of Ireland after Dublin raised concerns about them amid a tense dispute with the West over expansion of the NATO alliance and fears that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine.

The Feb. 3-8 exercises were to be held 240 kilometers off southwestern Ireland — in international waters but within Ireland’s exclusive economic zone. Ireland is a member of the 27-nation European Union but not a member of NATO.

Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney this week objected to the war games, saying “This isn’t a time to increase military activity and tension in the context of what’s happening with and in Ukraine. The fact that they are choosing to do it on the western borders, if you like, of the EU, off the Irish coast, is something that in our view is simply not welcome.”

Russia’s embassy in Ireland on Saturday posted a letter on Facebook from Ambassador Yuriy Filatov saying the exercises would be relocated outside of the Irish economic zone ”with the aim not to hinder fishing activities.”

The decision was a rare concession amid the escalating tensions surrounding Russia’s massing of an estimated 100,000 troops near the border with Ukraine and its demands that NATO promise never to allow Ukraine to join the alliance, stop the deployment of NATO weapons near Russian borders and roll back its forces from Eastern Europe.

The U.S. and NATO formally rejected those demands this week, although Washington outlined areas where discussions are possible, offering hope that there could be a way to avoid war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made no public remarks about the Western response. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said it leaves little chance for reaching agreement, though he also says Russia does not want war.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Friday that Putin could use any portion of his force to seize Ukrainian cities and “significant territories” or to carry out “coercive acts or provocative political acts” like the recognition of breakaway territories inside Ukraine.

Two territories in eastern Ukraine have been under the control of Russia-backed rebels since 2014, after Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine.

A Russian lawmaker is encouraging residents of those areas of Ukraine to join the Russian army, a sign that Moscow is continuing to try to integrate those territories as much as possible. Viktor Vodolatsky said Saturday that residents in rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine fear assaults by Ukrainian forces and that those who hold Russian passports would be welcomed in the Russian military.

“If Russian citizens residing in the (territories) want to join the Russian Armed Forces, the Rostov regional military commissariat will register and draft them,” Vodolatsky, deputy chairman of parliament committee on relations with neighbors, told the state news agency Tass.

Russia has granted passports to more than 500,000 people in the rebel-held territories. Vodolatsky said the recruits would serve in Russia — but that leaves open the option that they could join any future invasion force.

A senior official in President Joe Biden’s administration said the U.S. welcomed Lavrov’s comments that Russia does not want war, “but this needs to be backed up with action. We need to see Russia pulling some of the troops that they have deployed away from the Ukrainian border and taking other de-escalatory steps.” The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk publicly.

Lavrov has said the U.S. suggested the two sides could talk about limits on the deployment of intermediate-range missiles, restrictions on military drills and rules to prevent accidents between warships and aircraft. He said the Russians proposed discussing those issues years ago, but Washington and its allies never took them up on it.

He also said those issues are secondary to Russia’s main concerns about NATO. He said international agreements say the security of one nation must not come at the expense of others, and said he would send letters to his Western counterparts asking them to explain their failure to respect that pledge.

Washington has warned Moscow of devastating sanctions if it invades Ukraine, including penalties targeting top Russian officials and key economic sectors. Lavrov said Moscow had warned Washington that sanctions would amount to a complete severing of ties.

NATO, meanwhile, said it was bolstering its deterrence in the Baltic Sea region.

Russia has launched military drills involving motorized infantry and artillery units in southwestern Russia, warplanes in Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea, and dozens of warships in the Black Sea and the Arctic. Russian troops are also in Belarus for joint drills, raising Western fears that Moscow could stage an attack on Ukraine from the north from Belarus. The Ukrainian capital is only 75 kilometers from the border with Belarus.
…

Italian President Sergio Mattarella was re-elected for a second term on Saturday, with party chiefs asking him to carry on after a week of fruitless voting in parliament to choose a successor.

At the eighth round of balloting among more than 1,000 lawmakers and regional delegates in the Chamber of Deputies, loud applause broke out when Mattarella passed the 505 votes needed for election.

Mattarella, 80, had ruled out remaining in office, but with the country’s political stability at risk he changed his mind in the face of appeals from parliamentary leaders who met him at his palace earlier in the day.

In Italy’s political system, the president is a powerful figure who gets to appoint prime ministers and is often called on to resolve political crises in the euro zone’s third-largest economy, where governments survive around a year on average.
…

Ukraine’s leader and his defense and security aides are assessing Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s intentions differently from many of their Western counterparts. Are they just more stoical after eight years of persistent Russian provocations and a long-running war in eastern Ukraine—or are they misreading their Russian adversary?

Washington and London have both warned the chances are high that Putin will order an invasion of Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden has been warning for weeks of the “distinct possibility” Russia might invade Ukraine next month, and he reiterated the point Thursday in a phone discussion with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy, according to the White House.

Britain’s defense secretary, Ben Wallace, says he is “not optimistic” a Russian incursion into Ukraine can be stopped. He told the BBC while visiting Berlin there was still “a chance” an invasion could be halted, but added, “I’m not optimistic.”

Russia denies it is preparing to launch a major assault on Ukraine, accusing Western powers of alarmism. The Kremlin insists the more than 100,000 troops it has deployed along Ukraine’s borders are just taking part in exercises.

But Zelenskiy appears to suspect Moscow will do something short of launching a full-scale invasion and more likely will continue to wage the highly sophisticated form of psychological and hybrid warfare it has been using against Ukraine and Europe with growing intensity for the past decade and more.

The Ukrainian president has been calling for calm ahead of Wednesday’s meeting among officials of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France — known as the “Normandy format” — to discuss once again the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, nearly half of which has been occupied since 2014 by Russian soldiers and armed local proxies.

Asked at a news conference Friday for foreign media about the different assessments and of a possible rift with Biden, Zelenskiy cited his concerns over Ukraine’s economy, saying that talk of an imminent invasion is adversely affecting the economy. “For me, the question of the possible escalation is not less acute as for the United States and other partners,” he said.

But he complained the media was giving the impression we have an army in the streets and “that’s not the case.” And he said Ukraine doesn’t “need this panic” because it is damaging the economy. “We may lose the current economy,” he added.

The Ukrainian leader pointedly took issue last week when the United States, Britain, Canada and Australia announced evacuations of personnel from their embassies. Zelenskiy and his aides expressed frustration, saying the withdrawal of some diplomatic staff was premature.

One official told VOA the evacuations undermined efforts to calm the fears of ordinary Ukrainians. The United States and Britain also have told their nationals to leave Ukraine.

According to Ukrainian officials, Zelenskiy has broached the issue of evacuations with U.S. officials, including U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, saying the withdrawal of staff is an “overreaction” and something Russia can exploit to sow fear and to destabilize.

Aside from worries about the economy and Ukrainian morale, though, Kyiv appears to be at odds with Washington and London over Putin’s strategy, as well as over how near he is to completing a military buildup that would allow him to launch a full throttle invasion.

According to Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, Russia doesn’t have enough troops in place to mount a full-scale invasion. He told reporters this week, “The number of Russian troops massed along the border of Ukraine and occupied territories of Ukraine is large, it poses a threat to Ukraine, a direct threat to Ukraine, however, at the moment, as we speak, this number is insufficient for a full-scale offensive against Ukraine along the entire Ukrainian border.”

Some independent Ukrainian analysts agree with Kyiv’s assessment that a full-scale invasion isn’t likely. “I don’t believe there will be a full-scale military invasion,” said Taras Kuzio, an analyst at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based research group, and a professor at the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy.

“In that sense, I agree with Ukrainian military officials,” he said in a recent British television debate. “There aren’t enough troops there. Ukraine is a huge territory. It has the third largest army in Europe. And if you’re working on the basis of a three-to-one ratio of invading versus defending armies, which is the number you need to be successful, then Russia would need 500,000 to 600,000 troops to overcome Ukraine. It doesn’t have that, and it’s not projected to have that.”

Kuzio believes it is more likely Russia may mount an incursion around the Black Sea coast and expand on territory it holds in the Donbass region.

Ukrainian officials admit privately they are caught somewhat in a quandary. They need Western military assistance and materiel—from anti-tank rockets to surface-to-air missiles—and they need the West to be strong, to stand up to Putin and to deter Russia from any kind of attack, limited or otherwise. But they don’t want to talk up the threat, wreck their economy and panic their people. It is a fine line they’re walking, several officials told VOA.

Western officials say they have to be ready for all eventualities and they don’t want to be caught wrong-footed, as they were in 2014 when Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. Russia then encouraged and assisted armed proxies to seize part of the Donbass in the wake of a popular uprising that toppled Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, a Putin ally.  

That means, they say, reinforcing NATO’s military presence in eastern Europe, in neighboring NATO countries, and making sure everyone understands the stakes are high. “Putin is unpredictable and any gaps he sees he will jump through; any weakness, he will exploit,” a senior NATO official told VOA.
…

Many in Taiwan do not see parallels between Russia’s threats against Ukraine and their situation with China. Instead, much of the concern in Taiwan has focused on whether their closest ally, the United States, would become distracted by Europe or act in bad faith toward Ukraine — hinting at how Taiwan might be treated one day.

“I think people in Taiwan, or people that I am closest to, they haven’t expressed any concerns regarding the issues of a Russian possible invasion in Ukraine. They have mentioned briefly saying that the crisis in Europe is worsening, but they’ve kept it quite vague,” said Daniel Ha, who helps manage a co-working space in Taipei.

“I think people are always concerned about [whether] China could use this opportunity to flex its muscles again or move forward with their plans of unifying Taiwan,” he said. “I personally am concerned that it would be a big distraction if the West began a full-blown invasion trying to protect Ukraine. Taiwan could easily be sidelined.”

Syrena Lin, who works at a headhunting firm in Taipei, told VOA that while she was following the conflict in Ukraine, she had also not found much discussion of it in her daily life.

“I don’t think Taiwanese people are really treating this as a big deal, especially as I have a lot of friends in politics and I don’t really see any discussion among them,” Lin said.

“I am interested in this issue, and I care about how it’s going because the U.S. and China are both involved in it,” she added. “I think China is watching how the U.S. is reacting to military offensives and maybe China will take it as an example to how the U.S. would react when China really [attacks] Taiwan one day.”

Taiwan’s government has expressed similar sympathetic but measured views about Ukraine. Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Joanne Ou said in a statement that Taiwan was “concerned about the current situation of Russia-Ukraine relations” and called for dialogue as soon as possible.

One reason for the relative distance may be that many Taiwanese — including young professionals like Ha — see more distance between themselves and China than between Russia and Ukraine, who were united for much of modern history by the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union.

“Communist China has never ruled Taiwan officially or ever,” Ha told VOA, adding that the last time Beijing direct controlled Taiwan was in the 19th century.

“It was Qing dynasty that predated the Japanese colonial period so if you’re talking about historical facts, the Chinese Communist Party doesn’t have a right to claim Taiwan,” he said.

Ha said some Taiwanese may disagree with his view, particularly those who are descended from Chinese emigres to Taiwan in the 1950s after the end of the Chinese revolution, but their numbers are also waning with demographic shifts and the rise in Taiwanese nationalism among young people.

His feeling were shared by other Taiwanese, such as Kuan-ting Chen, CEO of the think tank Taiwan NextGen Foundation, who also found Ukraine and Taiwan to be a “false comparison” because of vastly different historic and logistical factors.

Chen said there are few geographic obstacles for Russia to invade Ukraine, but Taiwan has notoriously difficult geographical defenses like the 130-kilometer Taiwan Strait that would be a “nightmare” for China — at least for the next few years until the People’s Liberation Army completes a major modernization program.

China and Taiwan have had three close calls in the past that could have led to military conflict, although the last time China came close to landing on Taiwanese soil was in the 1950s. The most recent conflict was in 1996 when China fired missiles in the direction of Taiwan, but since then it has focused primarily on “grey zone” tactics such as flying military planes in the direction of Taiwan to erode morale.

For those who are closely watching the conflict in Ukraine, most of their focus has instead been on how the U.S. will respond, said Kwei-Bo Huang, an associate professor in diplomacy at National Chengchi University in Taiwan. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in September raised uncomfortable questions in Taiwan about whether Washington might abandon another long-time ally, and the Ukraine conflict could resurrect many of these concerns.

“I can sense that in Taiwan, those having some knowledge of the Ukraine-Russia case are waiting to see whether the U.S. will fulfil its commitment to Ukraine and make more direct and strong responses to Russia’s threat of use of force. If the U.S. doesn’t do so, then the U.S. commitment to Taiwan in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act will be doubted (again) by many in Taiwan,” he said by email, citing a major piece of U.S. legislation.

In the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act the U.S. has pledged to help Taiwan to defend itself against an attack but that does not guarantee that it will provide military assistance.

Many Taiwanese are also aware that while the U.S. and Taiwan have recently grown closer under the presidencies of Donald Trump and now Joe Biden, U.S. interest in the East Asian democracy has fluctuated over the decades. 

 
…

Portuguese voters go to the polls Sunday, two years earlier than scheduled, after a political crisis over a blocked spending bill brought down the minority Socialist government and triggered a snap election.

The Socialist Party has been in power since 2015, with Portugal one of only a half-dozen European countries having a left-of-center government. It faces a strong challenge from the center-right Social Democratic Party, its traditional rival.

Some 10.8 million voters are eligible to choose 230 lawmakers in the Republican Assembly, Portugal’s parliament, where political parties then decide who forms a government.

Here’s a look at what’s happening:

Why have an early election? Parliament last November rejected the Socialist government’s spending plan for 2022.

In previous years, the Socialists had relied on the support of their left-of-center sympathizers in parliament — the Left Bloc and the Portuguese Communist Party — to ensure the state budget had enough votes to pass.

But this time their differences, especially over health spending and workers’ rights, were too hard to bridge, and Socialist Prime Minister António Costa was left short of votes to pass his party’s plan.

Portugal’s president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, said the 2022 budget is “crucial,” because it needs to relaunch the economy after the pandemic. He called a snap election so the Portuguese can decide what path the country should take.

What’s at stake? Portugal is poised to begin deploying some $50 billion of aid from the European Union to help fire up the economy post-pandemic.

Two-thirds of that sum is meant for public projects, such as major infrastructure, giving the next government a huge windfall to spend. The rest is to help selected private sector projects.

The 2022 state budget forecast GDP growth of 5.5% this year, one of the highest among countries that use the euro currency, with a jobless rate of around 6.5% — roughly the same as now.

The new government will be sworn in for a four-year term.

What are the choices? The Socialist Party is promising to increase the minimum monthly salary, earned by more than 800,000 people, to $1,021 by 2026. It is currently $800. Low wages are a common grievance among voters.

The Socialists also want to “start a national conversation” about cutting the working week to four days, from five.

The Social Democratic Party is promising income tax cuts and more help for private companies. Party leader Rui Rio wants to cut corporate tax from the current 21% to 17% by 2024.

Those two parties traditionally collect around 70% of the vote.

The Portuguese Communist Party and the Left Bloc are potential allies for the Socialists. The conservative Popular Party has in the past allied with the Social Democratic Party.

Several other smaller parties are presenting candidates nationwide and could become kingmakers by supporting a minority government.

They range from the populist Chega! (Enough!), which opposes large-scale immigration and demands more support for the police, to the People-Animals-Nature party which wants tougher animal welfare protection and tighter environmental controls.

Who’s favored to win? Opinion polls suggest a close race between the Socialists and Social Democrats. That likely means the ballot will produce another vulnerable minority government and a rocky period of horse-trading for parliamentary votes before a budget can be passed.

The Socialists, smarting from the collapse of their outgoing government, say they no longer trust their allies on the left.

The Social Democrats, meanwhile, may have to address a surge in support for the Chega! populists, whose policies they find distasteful.

Has the pandemic affected the ballot? More than a million eligible voters could be in home confinement on election day, authorities say, and officials have struggled to reconcile the constitutional right to vote with their duty to protect public health.

The highly contagious omicron variant has brought record daily infections of over 50,000 recently, compared with fewer than 1,000 in November. Portugal’s high vaccination rate of 89% of the population has largely safeguarded the health system, officials say.

The main parties shunned their traditional flag-waving campaign rallies to avoid large gatherings. Party leaders attended 36 live television debates in the first half of January — many more than usual.

Thousands of poll workers got a booster shot ahead of the ballot.

Early voting possibilities were extended, and infected people are exceptionally allowed to leave isolation to vote, with the government recommending they cast their ballot in the slower evening period.
…

European allies agreed on Friday to draw up plans within two weeks for how to continue their fight against Islamist militants in Mali, Denmark’s defense minister said, after France said the situation with the Malian junta had become untenable.

Tensions have escalated between Mali and its international partners since the junta failed to organize an election following two military coups.

It has also deployed Russian private military contractors, which some European countries have said is incompatible with their mission.

“There was a clear perception that this is not about Denmark. It’s about a Malian military junta which wants to stay in power. They have no interest in a democratic election, which is what we have demanded,” Danish Defense Minister Trine Bramsen told Reuters.

Speaking after a virtual meeting of the 15 countries involved in the European special forces Takuba task mission, she said the parties had agreed to come up with a plan within 14 days to decide on what the “future counterterrorism mission should look like in the Sahel region.”

The ministers held talks after the junta had insisted on the immediate withdrawal of Danish forces despite the 15 nations’ rejecting its claims that Copenhagen’s presence was illegal.

“European, French and international forces are seeing measures that are restricting them. Given the situation, given the rupture in the political and military frameworks, we cannot continue like this,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told RTL radio earlier in the day, adding that the junta was out of control.

He said the Europeans needed to think about how to adapt their operations.

‘Full of contempt’

Speaking to France 24 TV, Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop said that Le Drian’s comments were “full of contempt” and Paris needed to act less aggressively and respect Mali.

“France’s attitude needs to change. … We are reviewing several defense accords and treaties to ensure they don’t violate Mali’s sovereignty. If that’s not the case, we will not hesitate to ask for adjustments.” 

He said that Paris welcomed military coups “when they served its interests,” referring to a coup in neighboring Chad that has drawn little resistance from France.

The junta’s handling of Denmark is likely to affect future deployments, with Norway, Hungary, Portugal, Romania and Lithuania due to send troops this year. It raises questions about the broader future of French operations in Mali, where there are 4,000 troops. Paris had staked a great deal on bringing European states to the region.

Colonel Arnaud Mettey, commander of France’s forces in Ivory Coast, which backs up Sahel operations, told Reuters that the junta had no right to refuse Denmark’s presence given agreed treaties.

“Either they are rejecting this treaty and so put into question our presence, or they apply it,” he said. “France and the European Union will not disengage from the Sahel. Takuba will carry on.”

Diop said the departure of French troops was not on the table for now.

However, Denis Tull, senior associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said Paris may ultimately not be left with a choice.

“If this confrontation continues, there probably will simply be no political context in which the French transformation agenda for [France’s counterterrorism force] Barkhane can be applied and implemented as planned,” he said.
…