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Archive for: March 2023 - DIGEST UKRAINE

Month: March 2023

New developments:

The EU may need to reintroduce tariffs on large, low-priced influx of Ukrainian grain, as a measure to safeguard prices and local output of EU farmers.
Any cease-fire in Russia's war on Ukraine that would involve Russian forces remaining on Ukrainian territory is “totally inadmissible,” Mykhailo Podolyak, senior adviser to President Zelenskyy, said in a tweet.


NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says Finland will formally join NATO “in the coming days.”
U.S. President Joe Biden called on Russia Friday to release detained Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, charged with spying by Moscow. "Let him go," Biden said as he left the White House for a trip to storm-devastated Mississippi. The Journal said the detention of Gershkovich was based on false allegations.

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko threatened Friday that Belarus also could host intercontinental nuclear missiles on its soil in addition to the tactical nuclear weapons Russia has decided to station in Belarus.

In an annual address to lawmakers and government officials, Lukashenko said Moscow’s nuclear arms would help protect Belarus, which Lukashenko claimed was under threat from the West.

“I am not trying to intimidate or blackmail anyone. I want to safeguard the Belarusian state and ensure peace for the Belarusian people,” said Lukashenko, suggesting he could use such nuclear weapons with Russia’s agreement if Belarus was threatened with destruction.

Intercontinental ballistic missiles on Belarusian soil can destroy whole cities from thousands of miles away.

Lukashenko said Belarus had enough conventional weapons to counter threats, “but if we see that behind [the threats] lies the destruction of our country, we will use everything we have.”

“If necessary, Putin and I will decide and bring in strategic weapons — if needed,” he noted.

Lukashenko did not present any proof of such a threat from the West, nor did he provide any indication there were plans to invade Belarus from neighboring Poland, a member of the U.S.-led Western NATO alliance.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke at a ceremony in the town of Bucha near Kyiv to commemorate the anniversary of its liberation from Russia’s brutal occupation. Bucha stands as a symbol of atrocities committed by the Russian army since its full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

The Kremlin’s forces occupied Bucha weeks after they invaded Ukraine and stayed for about a month. Ukrainian troops retook the town and found horrific scenes. Hundreds of bodies were uncovered, including some children.

In a tweet, a tearful Zelenskyy said, “We will never forget the victims of this war and we will certainly bring all Russian murderers to justice.”

In his daily address Thursday, the Ukrainian leader commemorated Ukraine’s 400th day of resistance. “I want to thank everyone in the world who stands with Ukraine … who has the same strong conviction that we, Ukrainians, have … the conviction that the world should be based on rules, on civilized rules — on the rules of humanity, respect and peace. … We will not leave a single trace of Russia on our land,” he said.

Turkey’s parliament on Thursday ratified Finland’s bid to join NATO. Turkey’s parliament is the last to approve lifting the last hurdle of the Nordic country’s accession into the Western military alliance.

“All 30 NATO allies have now ratified the accession protocol,” Stoltenberg said Friday. “Finland will formally join our alliance in the coming days.” In a tweet following Turkey’s vote Thursday, Stoltenberg said Finland’s inclusion in the alliance “will make the whole NATO family stronger & safer.”

Finland and neighboring Sweden each dropped decades of nonalignment with their applications to join the military alliance after Russia invaded Ukraine last year.

Since their accession bids were ratified at a NATO summit in July, NATO member states have gone through their own processes of giving final approval for Finland and Sweden.

Hungary gave its approval to Finland on Monday, leaving only Turkey remaining in a process that must be unanimous among current NATO members.

Both Finland and Sweden saw their bids slowed as Turkey expressed concerns the countries were too lenient toward groups that Turkey considers terror organizations.

Representatives from the three countries met earlier this month to resolve their outstanding issues, but Turkey has yet to indicate it will ultimately support Sweden’s bid, nor has Hungary.

There is “an ample amount of grievances that need to be addressed” before Sweden’s bid to join NATO is ratified by Hungary, government spokesperson Zoltán Kovács said Wednesday.

Sweden and NATO leaders have said Sweden has carried out a series of reforms to overcome Turkey’s concerns. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg has repeatedly said he expected both Finland and Sweden will eventually become NATO members.

Some material in this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.

The killing of nine Chinese gold mine workers in conflict-ridden Central African Republic this month highlighted the risks some Belt and Road development projects face in volatile areas.

To protect Chinese investments and citizens, Beijing deploys its own private security contractors, but analysts say these companies operate very differently on the continent than Russia’s notorious Wagner Group.

President Xi Jinping called for those responsible for the March 19 attack by gunmen on a Chinese-run gold mine outside Bambari to be “severely punished,” while the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a security alert for its citizens.

“The foreign ministry will continue to work closely with other government agencies concerned and subnational governments to do everything possible to protect the safety and security of Chinese nationals and companies in Africa,” ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters after the incident.

With thousands of Chinese working in Africa since Xi’s infrastructure-building push began in 2013, their security and the protection of assets like mines and natural gas projects — as well as railways and shipping routes — have become a key concern for Beijing, said Jasmine Opperman, an independent security consultant based in South Africa.

Chinese workers in Africa also are increasingly targeted by criminal gangs for kidnapping.

All these threats have led to a rise in the number of private military companies (PMCs) or private security companies (PSCs) operating on the continent.

“On China PMCs we have to go back to the Belt and Road Initiative,” Opperman told VOA. “We have seen a massive deployment of workers, Chinese workers, more specifically infrastructure. Now these investments, like in Sudan, South Sudan, are really in volatile areas, so we have seen a proliferation of Chinese PMCs on the African continent, with a task to protect employees and the infrastructure projects.”

Incidents like the one in CAR could now result in more Chinese security companies deployed.

“It’s about the protection and expansion of Chinese influence, and because of the volatile security situations, we are seeing these PMCs now growing in numbers,” said Opperman.

Different than Wagner?

But analysts stress there is a huge difference between Chinese security firms and companies like Wagner Group — which the U.S. Treasury this year designated a “transnational criminal organization” — or even disgraced and disbanded U.S. company Blackwater, which committed abuses during the Iraq war.

Wagner Group, which has close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin, has been in the news recently because of the group’s deployment of tens of thousands of mercenaries to fight in the war in Ukraine. But it’s long been operating in destabilized countries in Africa, including CAR and Mali.

Paul Nantulya, a China expert at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, told VOA that Chinese private security companies are not really private at all.

“Ninety-nine percent of security contractors in China are ex-People’s Liberation Army and also ex-special forces and ex-paramilitary police. There’s a level of control, the laws in China are very clear, that the state must have a holding interest in all security firms,” he said.

Nantulya’s previous research on the topic found that of the 5,000 security firms registered in China, 20 were licensed to operate overseas and reported that they employed 3,200 individual contractors. However, he said he thought the true number was much higher.

Among the companies working on the continent are Beijing DeWe Security Service, Huaxin Zhong An Security Group and China Security Technology Group. In Kenya, DeWe employs around 2,000 security contractors just to protect the $3.6 billion China-built Standard Gauge Railway, according to his study.

However, Nantulya told VOA that Chinese companies “work very, very differently from Russian ones like Wagner. Wagner is engaged in combat operations. It’s engaged in wars; it supplies a national security adviser in, for instance, the Central African Republic. They become part of the governing architecture. They fight wars on behalf of governments.”

 

The U.S. government said Wagner has “meddled and destabilized countries in Africa, committing widespread human rights abuses and extorting natural resources from their people. … Wagner personnel have engaged in an ongoing pattern of serious criminal activity, including mass executions, rape, child abductions and physical abuse in the Central African Republic and Mali.”

Asked by VOA whether the U.S. has any concerns about Chinese security contractors operating in Africa, a State Department spokesperson replied: “We respect the ability of countries to decide for themselves whether to partner with the PRC. However, we echo the long-standing calls from African capitals that the PRC must respect host country laws and international obligations.”

Nantulya noted that most Chinese security contractors – except for those involved in maritime escort missions intended to protect against pirates – are strictly controlled and aren’t even allowed to be armed.

“The Chinese, it’s a small footprint. According to Chinese law, Chinese contractors are not allowed to go into operations with weapons, so they have to work very closely with host nation security forces. They do a lot of training, they do a lot of capacity building, they supply equipment, they supply intelligence, they supply surveillance and so on,” he said.

Opperman said the Chinese security contractors could still have a destabilizing effect.

“Though PMCs from China are not allowed to carry weapons, what they are doing is collaborating through private or local security companies or even local militia groups in terms of providing security … by means of collaborating with local militias, you’re basically taking sides.”

In 2016, more than 300 Chinese oil workers were stranded amid heavy militia fighting in Juba, South Sudan. DeWe’s unarmed personnel helped to evacuate the Chinese nationals by enlisting armed South Sudanese by enlisting armed South Sudanese as backup. Some of the South Sudanese government-backed militias used by Chinese companies have been accused of committing atrocities.

And there have been incidences of violence, despite the arms ban. In Zimbabwe, two Chinese security contractors were jailed in 2017 for shooting and wounding a politician’s son, while in Zambia in 2018, two suspected Chinese security contractors were arrested for providing illegal training and military equipment to a local security firm.

The Chinese Mission to the African Union did not reply to a request for comment.

У міністерстві зауважили: при повторній спробі оглянути одне з приміщень його комісія не змогла потрапити до будівлі, бо вона була зачинена, а передані УПЦ (МП) ключі не підійшли

Finland received the green light to join NATO when Turkey ratified the Nordic country’s membership late Thursday, becoming the last country in the 30-member Western military alliance to sign off.

All NATO members must vote unanimously to admit a new country. into the alliance. The decision by the Turkish parliament followed Hungary’s ratification of Finland’s bid earlier in the week.

The addition of Finland, which shares a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia, will more than double the size of NATO’s border with Russia.

However, a few more steps and procedures are required before the northern European nation becomes the 31st full NATO member:

Acceptance letters

Turkey and Hungary dispatch acceptance letters to the United States which is the depositary, or safekeeper, of NATO under the alliance’s 1949 founding treaty. The letters will be filed in the archives of the U.S. State Department, which will notify NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg that the conditions for inviting Finland to become a member were met.

Invitation

NATO sends a letter signed by Stoltenberg inviting Finland to join the military alliance.

Signatures

Finland sends its own acceptance document, signed by Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, to the U.S. State Department. Finnish President Sauli Väinämö Niinistö authorized Haavisto to sign the document. Either the Finnish Embassy in Washington or a Finnish government official will deliver the document.

Full membership

Once Finland’s membership acceptance document reaches the State Department in Washington, the country officially becomes a NATO member.

Finland-Sweden

Finland and neighboring Sweden jointly applied for NATO membership in May 2022. The countries, which have close cultural, economic and political ties, planned to enter the alliance simultaneously.

Sweden’s bid, however, has stalled due to opposition from Turkey, whose president has said his country wouldn’t ratify membership before disputes between Ankara and Stockholm were resolved. The Turkish government has accused Sweden of being too soft on groups that it deems to be terror organizations.

Hungary’s parliament also has yet to ratify Sweden’s accession to NATO, and it remains unclear when it will do so.

Britain will join 11 other countries in a major Asia-Pacific trade partnership, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced Friday, in the country’s biggest post-Brexit trade deal following nearly two years of talks.

Britain will be the first new member since the creation of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in 2018, and the first European country in the bloc.

The trade grouping will include more than 500 million people and account for 15% of global GDP once Britain becomes its 12th member, according to Sunak’s office.

It said Britain’s admission — after 21 months of “intense negotiations” — puts the country “at the heart of a dynamic group of economies” and was evidence of “seizing the opportunities of our new post-Brexit trade freedoms.”

The development fulfils a key pledge of Brexit supporters that, outside the European Union, Britain could capitalize on joining other trade blocs with faster-growing economies than those closer to home.

Critics have argued that such ventures will struggle to compensate for the economic damage sustained by leaving the European Union, the world’s largest trading bloc and collective economy.

“We are at our heart an open and free-trading nation, and this deal demonstrates the real economic benefits of our post-Brexit freedoms,” Sunak said in a statement announcing the deal.

“As part of CPTPP, the UK is now in a prime position in the global economy to seize opportunities for new jobs, growth and innovation.”

The CPTPP is the successor to a previous trans-Pacific trade pact that the United States withdrew from under former President Donald Trump in 2017.

Its members include fellow G7 members Canada and Japan, and historic British allies Australia and New Zealand.

The remaining members are Mexico, Chile and Peru, along with Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Brunei.

In Tokyo, Japanese government spokesperson Hirokazu Matsuno welcomed the announcement.

“The UK is a global strategic partner and also an important trading and investment partner,” he told reporters.

Its accession “will have great meaning for forming a free and fair economic order,” he added.

‘Milestone’

Despite rising geopolitical tensions, in particular with Canberra, China formally applied to join the bloc in 2021.

All existing members must reach a consensus for a new country to enter the CPTPP.

Matsuno said Japan would need to examine whether China and other nations hoping to join can meet the required conditions, and would also consider the “strategic viewpoint” and Japanese public opinion.

Since Britain quit the EU’s single market in 2021, it has been trying to strike bilateral deals to boost its international trade — and flagging economy.

London has so far inked agreements with far-flung allies including Australia, New Zealand and Singapore, and is in talks with India and Canada.

However, a prized pact with the United States remains stalled.

Britain applied to join the CPTPP in February 2021, kicking off talks later that year in June.

London and the other existing members are poised to take the “final legal and administrative steps required” before Britain will formally sign later this year, Sunak’s Downing Street office said.

It will boost the British economy by $2.2 billion over the long term, it added, citing estimates.

More than 99% of British goods exported to member countries will now be eligible for zero tariffs, including key British exports such as cars, chocolate, machinery and whisky, it added.

British exports to them were already worth $75 billion in the year to the end of September 2022, and are expected to grow once inside the CPTPP, according to Downing Street.

Britain’s dominant services industry will also benefit from “reduced red tape and greater access to growing Pacific markets with an appetite for high-quality UK products and services,” it said.

Matthew Fell, interim head of Britain’s CBI business lobby, called the deal “a real milestone for the UK and for British industry”

“Membership reinforces the UK’s commitment to building partnerships in an increasingly fragmented world,” he said.

New data is suggesting at least some U.S. adversaries are taking advantage of the hugely popular TikTok video-sharing app for influence operations.

A report Thursday by the Alliance for Securing Democracy (ASD) finds Russia “has been using the app to push its own narrative” in its effort to undermine Western support for Ukraine.

“Based on our analysis, some users are engaging more with Russian state media than other, more reputable independent news outlets on the platform,” according to the report by the U.S.-based election security advocate that tracks official state actors and state-backed media.

“More TikTok users follow RT than The New York Times,” it said.

The ASD report found that as of March 22, there were 78 Russian-funded news outlets on TikTok with a total of more than 14 million followers.

It also found that despite a commitment from TikTok to label the accounts as belonging to state-controlled media, 31 of the accounts were not labeled.

Yet even labeling the accounts seemed to have little impact on their ability to gain an audience.

“By some measures, including the performance of top posts, labeled Russian state media accounts are reaching larger audiences on TikTok than other platforms,” the report said. “RIA Novosti’s top TikTok post so far in 2023 has more than 5.6 million views. On Twitter, its top post has fewer than 20,000 views.”

The report on Russian state media’s use of TikTok comes as U.S. officials are again voicing concern about the potential for TikTok to be used for disinformation campaigns and foreign influence operations.

“Just a tremendous number of people in the United States use TikTok,” John Plumb, the principal cyber adviser to the U.S. secretary of defense, told members of a House Armed Services subcommittee, warning of “the control China may have to direct information through it” and use it as a “misinformation platform.”

“This provides a foreign nation a platform for information operations,” U.S. Cyber Command’s General Paul Nakasone added, noting that TikTok has 150 million users in the United States.

“One-third of the adult population receives their news from this app,” he said. “One-sixth of our children are saying they’re constantly on this app.”

TikTok, owned by China-based ByteDance, has sought to push back against the concerns.

“Let me state this unequivocally: ByteDance is not an agent of China or any other country,” TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew told U.S. lawmakers during a hearing last week.

“We do not promote or remove content at the request of the Chinese government,” he said, trying to downplay fears about the company’s data collection practices and Chinese laws that would require the company to share that information with the Chinese government if asked.U.S. lawmakers, intelligence and security officials, however, have their doubts.

The top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, Marco Rubio, earlier this month warned that TikTok is “probably one of the most valuable surveillance tools on the planet.”

A day later, Cyber Command’s Nakasone told members of the House Intelligence Committee that TikTok is like a “loaded gun,” while FBI Director Christopher Wray warned that TikTok’s recommendation algorithm “could be used to conduct influence operations.”

“That’s not something that would be easily detected,” he added.

 

In a partial victory for Iran, judges at the International Court of Justice on Thursday ruled that Washington had illegally allowed courts to freeze assets of some Iranian companies and ordered the United States to pay compensation, the amount of which will be determined later.  

However, in a blow for Tehran, the World Court said it did not have jurisdiction over $1.75 billion in frozen assets from Iran’s central bank.  

Acting Legal Adviser Rich Visek of the U.S. State Department said in a written statement that the ruling rejected the “vast majority of Iran’s case,” notably where it concerned the assets of the central bank.  

“This is a major victory for the United States and victims of Iran’s state-sponsored terrorism,” Visek added.  

In a reaction shared by Iran’s foreign ministry on its Telegram channel, it hailed the decision as “highlighting the legitimacy” of its positions and “expressing the wrongful behavior of the United States.” 

The ruling came amid heightened tensions between the United States and Iran after tit-for-tat strikes between Iran-backed forces and U.S. personnel in Syria last week. 

Relations have been strained after attempts to revive a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and major world powers stalled, and as Iranian drones are being used by Russia against Ukraine. 

Case brought in 2016

The case before the court was initially brought by Tehran against Washington in 2016 for allegedly breaching a 1955 friendship treaty by allowing U.S. courts to freeze assets of Iranian companies. The money was to be given in compensation to victims of terrorist attacks. 

The Islamic Republic denies supporting international terrorism. 

The 1950s friendship treaty was signed long before Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, which toppled the U.S.-backed shah, and the subsequent severing of U.S.-Iranian relations.  

Washington finally withdrew from the treaty in 2018. Nonetheless, the court ruled that it was in place at the time of the freezing of the assets of Iranian commercial companies and entities. 

“The court has concluded the United States violated its obligations under (…) the treaty of amity,” presiding judge Kirill Gevorgian said. He added that Iran was entitled to compensation and the parties had 24 months to agree on a figure; if that does not work, the court will start new proceedings to determine the amount to be paid.  

The judges also explained the court had no jurisdiction over the $1.75 billion in assets from Iran’s central bank held by the U.S. because that bank was not a commercial enterprise, and thus not protected by the treaty.  

The rulings of the court are binding, but it has no means of enforcing them. The United States and Iran are among a handful of countries to have disregarded its decisions in the past. 

Після перешкоджання роботі комісії з приймання-передачі державного майна Києво-Печерської лаври міністр культури та інформаційної політики України Олександр Ткаченко сподівається, що представники УПЦ МП «прийдуть до тями» і пустять комісію на територію Лаври. Про це він заявив в ефірі Радіо Свобода.

«Подивимося (якщо комісію знову не пускатимуть на територію Лаври – ред.). Вони ж сподівалися на якесь рішення суду. Сьогодні суд вирішив відмовити їм в тому, щоб, так би мовити, в якості застави відмінити наше рішення чи призупинити наше рішення. Тому ми абсолютно легально діємо. Я сподіваюся, що представники УПЦ МП прийдуть до тями», – сказав він в ефірі програми в ефірі програми Свобода Live.

За його словами, у разі повторного перешкоджання роботі комісії влада буде діяти згідно з законом.

«Закон в даному випадку передбачає, що якщо немає можливості в цивілізований спосіб перебрати для себе управління, ми фіксуємо, як сьогодні зафіксували в поліції, випадок недопущення. І далі є досить зрозуміла процедура приведення до виконання тих, хто не хоче виконувати закон. Якщо не пускають один раз – зафіксували, не пускають другий раз – зафіксували, на третій раз подаємо до суду. Суд має дуже короткі терміни ухвалити рішення щодо допущення представників влади, держави до цих об’єктів. Якщо і після цього рішення суду йде безвідповідальна поведінка і перешкоджання у доступі до об’єктів, то тоді вже мають вступати в силу правоохоронні органи, судові виконавці», – додав міністр.

Authorities in Montenegro say the United States and South Korea have asked the Balkan nation to extradite South Korean Terraform Lab founder Do Kwon, who is suspected in those countries of cryptocurrency fraud amounting to more than $40 billion.

“Two Koreans wanted by South Korea, Do Kwon and the company’s chief financial officer, Han Chang-joon, were detained when they attempted to cross the state border with passports that are reasonably suspected of being forged,” said Montenegrin Justice Minister Marko Kovač at a news conference Wednesday, stating that the United States also requested the extradition of Do Kwon from Montenegro.

Through diplomatic channels

Kovač said that “a meeting was held with the diplomatic representatives of the Republic of Korea at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Justice of Montenegro, after which a petition for the extradition of these two persons was handed over by the Republic of Korea, while the extradition of Do Kwon was also requested by the U.S.”

“The U.S. requested the extradition of Do Kwon through diplomatic channels, in the same way that a temporary arrest was requested,” said Kovač, adding that both countries also requested the equipment found with the detained.

After their detention at the Podgorica airport, the District Prosecutor’s Office launched an investigation of the criminal offense of falsification of documents, after which they were detained for 72 hours, and ordered to spend 30 days in custody.

Montenegro to decide extradition hearing date

“The High Court in Podgorica will decide when these persons will have a hearing in the extradition proceedings,” Kovač said.

He added that in the event of multiple requests for extradition from several different countries, the seriousness of the crime, the locality where the crime was committed, the order of receiving the requests for extradition as well as other circumstances will be considered.

Kovač said that if the suspects are convicted of falsifying identification documents, it is expected that only after they have served their prison sentence will they be extradited.

According to Montenegro’s criminal code, falsifying personal documents is punishable by up to five years in prison.

This story originated in the VOA Serbian service.

The first Western tanks began arriving in Ukraine this week, prompting speculation that Ukraine may soon launch a counteroffensive against invading Russian forces and whether the more advanced weapons will turn the tide of the war in Kyiv’s favor.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov posted a video on Twitter this week showing him on board a British Challenger 2 main battle tank, or MBT at an unidentified location in Ukraine.

“It was a pleasure to take the first Ukrainian Challenger 2 MBT for a spin,” Reznikov wrote in his March 28 Twitter post. “Such tanks, supplied by the United Kingdom, have recently arrived in our country. These fantastic machines will soon begin their combat missions.”

A total of 14 Challenger 2 tanks are being sent to Ukraine. British Defense Minister Ben Wallace said Wednesday he could not speculate on any upcoming Ukrainian offensive.

“But I think it is no secret Ukraine is keen to start the process of rolling back Russian forces in the conflict. Obviously, the Russian forces are making almost no progress whatsoever,” Wallace told reporters.

German Leopards

Chancellor Olaf Scholz confirmed Monday that Germany had already delivered 18 of its advanced Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, among the most highly regarded MBTs in the world. Canada and Norway have also dispatched several of their Leopard 2 tanks. Poland, Spain, Finland and the Netherlands have also pledged to send Leopard tanks, although the total numbers have not been confirmed

European commanders say it could tip the balance in favor of the Ukrainian forces.

“Now, [the Ukrainian forces] are in a kind of defensive position against more than 300,000 Russian combatants. Maybe not the best trained or best equipped combatants, but they are facing this kind of tsunami of soldiers, so they are holding the front line,” Vice Admiral Herve Blejean, commander of the European Union training mission for Ukrainian forces, told the Reuters news agency earlier in March.

“When they will be able to involve better tanks like the Leopard, they will be able to breach through and to look at counterattacking. At the present time, they are fighting for Bakhmut. They are doing a fine job, but the balance of forces is not in their favor,” Blejean added.

Counteroffensive

It’s unlikely Ukraine has enough Western tanks to launch a major counteroffensive imminently, said Patrick Bury, a military analyst at Britain’s University of Bath.

“How many are there now? Maybe between 30 or 40, given the numbers that were pledged. At the moment, it’s probably not enough, would be my hunch. But it’s still fairly significant,” Bury told VOA in an interview March 30.

“A battalion or two can form a spearhead. If they’re all used together, you wouldn’t want to be an infantry solider in a foxhole facing 40 of these tanks if they’re used correctly,” Bury said.

In an interview with the Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his forces need more Western weapons before launching any counteroffensive.

“We are waiting for ammunition to arrive from our partners,” Zelenskyy said. “We can’t start yet. We can’t send our brave soldiers to the front line without tanks, artillery and long-range rockets.”

Coordination

Bury said it’s crucial that the new weapons are deployed in a coordinated way.

“The question is, can Ukraine protect, use and concentrate the Western weapons to such an effect that they can break through better-prepared Russian lines? It’s not just about tanks. It’s about the armored infantry fighting vehicles. They accompany the tanks. It’s also about the artillery pieces — the rounds that they need for their own guns, and the new artillery pieces that are coming in, as well.

“So, it’s how you put the whole package together to achieve the combined arms breakthrough if that’s what you’re going to do,” Bury said.

Spring thaw

Ground conditions are changing rapidly along the front line. The spring thaw will turn frozen fields into quagmires.

“It just makes movements and maneuver more difficult. And therefore, that favors a sort of stagnation or a lack of offensive action in the open— big maneuvers around cities. The urban fights, of course, can go on,” Bury said.

Western nations have pledged dozens more tanks and other heavy weapons in the coming months. The United States is sending 31 Abrams MBTs, though these aren’t expected to arrive in Ukraine until the end of the year.

Slovakia this week sent Ukraine four Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets, with nine more to follow. Poland also plans to send several MiG-29s. Ukrainian demands for U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets remain unanswered.

Morale

British intelligence reported Thursday that Moscow is poised to launch another recruitment drive to sign up an additional 400,000 troops.

With both sides preparing for a long war, any breakthroughs on the battlefield will likely be limited, Bury said.

“How prepared are [the Russians] going to be? They’re going to be much more prepared than they were in Kharkiv last year, when the Ukrainians had a massive breakthrough,” he said.

“One thing to look for, though, is morale and cohesion, because you still have to have the will to fight if you’re going to get bombarded in your lines. And that is something where there is a question mark over the Russians. There definitely isn’t that question mark over the Ukrainians. And that could prove decisive,” Bury said.

The Vatican on Thursday formally repudiated the colonial-era “doctrine of discovery”, used centuries ago to justify European conquests of Africa and the Americas, saying “it is not part of Catholic Church teaching.”

The Vatican acknowledged in a statement from its culture and human development departments that papal documents from the 15th century were used by colonial powers to give legitimacy to their actions, which included slavery.

The departments specifically mentioned the papal bulls Dum Diversas (Until Different) from 1452, Romanus Pontifex (The Roman Pontiff) from 1455, and Inter Caetera (Among Other Things) from 1493.

“Historical research clearly demonstrates that the papal documents in question, written in a specific historical period and linked to political questions, have never been considered expressions of the Catholic faith,” the departments said.

They said they “were manipulated for political purposes by competing colonial powers in order to justify immoral acts against indigenous peoples that were carried out, at times, without opposition from ecclesiastical authorities.”

The Vatican departments admitted that the bulls, which gave political cover to Spanish and Portuguese conquests in Africa and the Americas, “did not adequately reflect the equal dignity and rights of indigenous peoples.”

“It is only just to recognize these errors, acknowledge the terrible effects of the assimilation policies and the pain experienced by indigenous peoples, and ask for pardon,” they said.

The Roman Catholic Church has long faced accusations of being complicit with colonial abuses committed by Western invaders and their descendants claiming to be spreading the Christian faith.

Argentine-born Pope Francis, the first pontiff from the Americas, has made several outreach gestures towards indigenous people. Last year, he travelled to Canada’s Arctic region to apologize for the oppression of the Inuit people.

In 2007, Francis’ predecessor, Benedict XVI, published a book that condemned rich countries for having mercilessly “plundered and sacked” Africa and other poor regions, and for exporting to them the “cynicism of a world without God.”

New developments:     

Spain to send six Leopard tanks to Ukraine in April 
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba calls April rotating U.N. Security Council presidency held by Russia “a bad joke.” Kuleba tweeted the world “can’t be a safe place with Russia at UNSC.”  
Russia’s Federal Security Service says Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was arrested on espionage charges. 

Turkey’s parliament is set to vote Thursday on Finland’s bid to join NATO. 

Finland and neighboring Sweden each broke with decades of nonalignment with their applications to join the military alliance after Russia invaded Ukraine last year. 

Since their accession bids were ratified at a NATO summit in July, NATO member states have gone through their own processes of giving final approval for Finland and Sweden. 

Hungary gave its approval to Finland on Monday, leaving only Turkey remaining in a process that must be unanimous among current NATO members. 

Both Finland and Sweden had their bids slowed as Turkey expressed concerns that the countries were too lenient toward groups that Turkey considers terror organizations.  Representatives from the three countries met earlier this month to resolve their outstanding issues, but Turkey has yet to indicate it will ultimately support Sweden’s bid. 

Sweden, and NATO leaders, have said Sweden has carried out a series of reforms to overcome Turkey’s concerns.  NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has repeatedly said he expected both Finland and Sweden will become NATO members. 

Some material in this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.