VILNIUS, Lithuania — The opposition Social Democrats took an early lead in the second round of Lithuania’s parliamentary election on Sunday, with voters focusing on concerns over the cost of living and potential threats from neighboring Russia. 

Official government data showed the center-left grouping leading with 33 seats after 64% of the vote was counted on top of 20 secured in the first round, in the 141-member assembly, ahead of the ruling Homeland Union Party which led in six constituencies in addition to 18 first-round wins. 

The Baltic country of 2.9 million people has a hybrid voting system in which half of parliament is elected by popular vote. The remainder is decided in district-based run-off votes between the top two candidates, a process that favors the larger parties. 

If the Social Democrats, or SD, succeed in forming a government, they are expected to maintain Lithuania’s hawkish stance against Russia and hefty defense spending. 

Lithuania will spend about 3% of GDP on its armed forces this year, according to NATO estimates, making it the military alliance’s sixth-biggest spender. 

Full results are expected at about midnight (2200 GMT). 

“Probably there will be some changes, but I want to believe that direction will remain the same,” Marius Slepetis, a businessman, told Reuters after his young daughter dropped his ballot into the box. 

The SD won 20% of the vote in the first round on Oct. 13, making it the largest party ahead of the ruling Homeland Union with 18% and the anti-establishment Nemunas Dawn with 15%. 

Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte’s center-right three-party coalition has seen its popularity eroded by inflation that topped 20% two years ago, deteriorating public services and a widening rich-poor gap. 

After the first round, SD leader Vilija Blinkeviciute said she was already in talks about forming a majority coalition government with two other parties – For Lithuania, and the Farmers and Greens Union. 

The SD made a pact with opposition parties to support all run-off candidates in contests against Simonyte’s Homeland Union nominees. 

Domestic economic issues were in focus during the election campaign, with the SD vowing to tackle increased inequality by raising taxes on wealthier Lithuanians to help fund more spending on health care and social support. 

But national security is also a major concern in Lithuania, which lies on the eastern flank of NATO and the European Union and shares a border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus, a close Moscow ally. 

“For me, it’s of utmost importance to keep the calmness, and to stop the war in Ukraine,” Mykolas Zvinys, 79, told Reuters before casting his vote on the outskirts of Vilnius. 

Three-quarters of Lithuanians think Russia could attack their country in the near future, a Baltijos Tyrimai/ELTA opinion poll found in May.
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