London — Germany’s plan to hold a snap election in February has raised uncertainties over the country’s military aid program for Ukraine, as the government has not yet approved its 2025 budget. Berlin is the second biggest donor of weapons and equipment to Kyiv, after the United States.

The political turmoil in Europe’s biggest economy comes as allies prepare for a second term for President-elect Donald Trump in the United States. Trump has repeatedly questioned U.S. support for Ukraine.

February vote

Germany’s main political parties agreed to hold the election on February 23, following the collapse of the ruling three-party coalition government earlier this month. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is due to introduce a confidence motion in parliament next month, which he is expected to lose, paving the way for a general election.

Scholz has said he will stand again as the Social Democrats’ candidate, although some in the party have questioned whether he is the best choice amid low approval ratings.

The chairman of the Social Democrats in the German parliament, Rolf Mützenich, insisted Tuesday that Scholz was the right candidate. 

“I am firmly convinced that Olaf Scholz has done this country good in the last three years under the most difficult conditions. He has done everything to ensure that the coalition stays together. We have not only experienced the attack by Russian troops on Ukraine, but we have also helped Ukraine. We have also created important economic stabilization effects in Germany,” Mützenich told reporters in Berlin.

Opposition poll lead

However, the main opposition Christian Democrats have a big lead in the polls. The party’s leader, Friedrich Merz, argued for a quicker election. 

“We are basically losing around a month for the election to the next German parliament and thus also for the formation of a government after the next election,” Merz told reporters Tuesday. “I just want to remind you that we do not have a federal budget for 2025. We are going into 2025 with this serious omission, with this heavy burden. And that is why it is completely unknown what will become of it,” he added.

Debt dispute

The current government — a coalition between the Social Democrats, the Green party and the Free Democrats — collapsed last week following disagreements over raising new debt to finance the 2025 budget, including the provision of military aid to Ukraine. A so-called debt brake in Germany’s constitution restricts the government’s ability to take on new loans. 

Berlin has given Kyiv around $11 billion in weapons and equipment since Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion. The outgoing government had planned to cut that aid to just over $4 billion next year.

“Broadly speaking, there was a consensus that supporting Ukraine remains a priority for Germany. The question was just where and how to get and raise the finances for that,” said Mattia Nelles, founder of the German-Ukraine Bureau, a political consultancy based in Düsseldorf, who said the February election was “bad timing for Ukraine, bad timing for Europe.” 

‘Leadership vacuum’

“It means Germany will be preoccupied with itself for a few months before we have a new government with a hopefully strong mandate — a coalition that could take literally until next summer, or in the worst case, even until autumn. So that is a leadership vacuum in Europe, and that’s bad news for everyone involved,” Nelles said.

The election is due to take place just weeks after the January 20 inauguration of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president.

“The worst case that many fear in Berlin and Kyiv [is] an incoming Trump administration taking power in January then slashing or ending the Ukraine aid, that will force the German government, the lame duck Scholz government with the current parliament, to increase the funding for Ukraine.”

“It’s important to note that there is still a majority in the old parliament, even before the new parliament is elected, to increase the aid, to take new debt and amend the constitution for that, to take new debt to support Ukraine … but it’s going to be difficult politically to implement that,” Nelles said. 

European security

Trump’s presidency could have wider implications for European security, including the deployment of U.S. forces and equipment, such as long-range missile systems, says analyst Marina Miron, a defense analyst at Kings College, London.

“What else might be reversed is the placement of Tomahawk [U.S. missiles] in Germany. So, we have quite a situation where, let’s say, Trump might pursue an anti-globalist agenda and push NATO countries to invest more of their GDP into defense,” Miron told VOA.

Russian assets

Europe froze around $200 billion in Russian assets following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The interest is being used to help fund weapons for Kyiv, while the G7 group of rich nations has implemented a loan plan for Ukraine using the Russian assets as collateral. 

At a time of fiscal pressures in Europe, some argue it’s time to seize the assets entirely and give them to Ukraine.

“Europe is sitting on a war chest of 200 billion U.S. dollars of frozen Russian assets,” said analyst Mattia Nelles. “And I think the incoming Trump administration will push the Europeans to go further. And that’s welcome news from the Ukrainian side — to not just give loans and credit based on frozen Russian assets, but to move to confiscate the assets themselves. And that’s certainly something many in Germany also support,” he added.

Economic pressures

Chancellor Scholz oversaw German efforts to end reliance on cheap Russian energy.  However, analysts say that has driven inflation and undermined confidence in Europe’s biggest economy.

Scholz also was seen as reluctant to make bolder decisions on arming Ukraine, including the supply of long-range Taurus missiles, something Kyiv has repeatedly requested.

Ukraine may be hoping that a change in leadership in Berlin could unblock more military aid, said Nelles. “We are looking at a new, potentially stronger government, which, if it’s led by [Christian Democrat leader] Friedrich Merz, might be taking some of the bolder decisions which Scholz had hesitated to take, including the delivery of Taurus. But everyone hoping for that, I would urge caution,” he said.

Germany’s economic constraints won’t disappear with new leadership, said analyst Marina Miron. 

“Let’s assume, for a moment, there is somebody who would drive this policy forward and who would have much more resolve than Scholz. The problem is the German budget. The problem is also that defense contractors in Europe are now affected, as other companies, by the disruption in the global supply chain,” she told VOA.

Germany is also struggling to overcome decades of underinvestment in its armed forces, something the next government will have to address, Miron added. 

“The dictates of German strategic culture just go against the grain of the current threat landscape, when it comes to bigger investment in defense,” she said.
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BAKU, Azerbaijan — COP29 negotiators welcomed as an early boost to the two-week summit a pledge by major development banks to lift funding to poor and middle-income countries struggling with global warming.

A group of lenders, including the World Bank, announced a joint goal on Tuesday of increasing this finance to $120 billion by 2030, a roughly 60% increase on the amount in 2023.

“I think it’s a very good sign,” Irish Climate Minister Eamon Ryan told Reuters on Wednesday.

“It’s very helpful. But that on its own won’t be enough,” Ryan said, adding countries and companies must also contribute.

The chief aim of the conference in Azerbaijan is to secure a wide-ranging international climate financing agreement that ensures up to trillions of dollars for climate projects.

Developing countries are hoping for big commitments from rich, industrialized countries that are the biggest historical contributors to global warming, and some of which are also huge producers of fossil fuels.

“Developed countries have not only neglected their historical duty to reduce emissions, they are doubling down on fossil-fuel-driven growth,” said climate activist Harjeet Singh.

Wealthy countries pledged in 2009 to contribute $100 billion a year to help developing nations transition to clean energy and adapt to the conditions of a warming world. But those payments were only fully met in 2022 and the pledge expires this year.

With 2024 on track to be the hottest year on record, scientists say global warming and its impacts are unfolding faster than expected.

Climate-fueled wildfires forced evacuations in California and triggered air quality warnings in New York. In Spain, survivors are coming to terms with the worst floods in the country’s modern history.

Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama said he was concerned that the international process to address global warming, now decades old, was not moving swiftly enough.

“This seems exactly like what happens in the real world everyday,” he told the conference. “Life goes on with its old habits, and our speeches, filled with good words about fighting climate change, change nothing,” Rama added.
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Manila, Philippines — Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said the International Criminal Court (ICC) should ‘hurry up’ with its probe of his war on drugs, remaining firm in his defense of the brutal campaign as he said the investigation should start immediately.

“I’m asking the ICC to hurry up, and if possible, they can come here and start the investigation tomorrow,” Duterte said in a congressional inquiry on his war on drugs.

“If I am found guilty, I will go to prison.”

According to police data, more than 6,200 people died in anti-drug operations under Duterte’s presidency, during which police typically said they had killed suspects in self-defense.

Human rights groups believe the real toll to be far greater, with thousands more users and small-time peddlers killed in mysterious circumstances by unknown assailants.

“I assume full responsibility for whatever happened in the actions taken by law enforcement agencies of this country to… stop the serious problem of drugs affecting our people,” said Duterte, who served as president from 2016 to 2022.

The ICC last year cleared the way for an investigation into the several thousand deaths and other suspected rights abuses.

The Philippines withdrew from the ICC in March 2019. Appeals judges at the ICC subsequently ruled prosecutors still had jurisdiction over the alleged crimes because they occurred when the Philippines was an ICC member.
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London — Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby, head of the Church of England and spiritual leader of the global Anglican Communion, resigned Tuesday after an investigation found that he failed to tell police about serial physical and sexual abuse by a volunteer at Christian summer camps as soon as he became aware of it. 

Pressure on Welby had been building since Thursday, when release of the inquiry’s findings kindled anger about a lack of accountability at the highest reaches of the church. Helen-Ann Hartley, the bishop of Newcastle, said Monday that his position was “untenable” after some members of the church’s national assembly started a petition calling on Welby to step down because he had “lost the confidence of his clergy.” 

“I believe that stepping aside is in the best interests of the Church of England, which I dearly love and which I have been honored to serve,” Welby said in a statement. 

The strongest outcry came from the victims of John Smyth, a prominent attorney who abused teenage boys and young men at Christian summer camps in Britain, Zimbabwe and South Africa over five decades. Andrew Morse, who was repeatedly beaten by Smyth over a period of five years, said that resigning was a chance for Welby to start repairing the damage caused by the church’s handling of historical abuse cases more broadly. 

“I believe that now is an opportunity for him to resign,” Morse told the BBC before Welby stepped down. “I say opportunity in the sense that this would be an opportunity for him to stand with the victims of the Smyth abuse and all victims that have not been treated properly by the Church of England in their own abuse cases.” 

Welby’s resignation comes against the backdrop of widespread historical sexual abuse in the Church of England. A 2022 report by the Independent Inquiry Child Sexual Abuse found that deference to the authority of priests, taboos surrounding the discussion of sexuality and a culture that gave more support to alleged perpetrators than their victims helped make the Church of England Church of England “a place where abusers could hide.” 
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CATARROJA, Spain — Thousands of students in Spain’s eastern Valencia region returned to classes on Monday, two weeks after floods killed over 200 people and devastated towns in the area.

Controversy over the regional government’s handling of the floods still rages, and a teachers’ union accused it of exaggerating the number returning and leaving the clean-up to teachers and pupils.

Twenty-three people remain missing in the Valencia region after heavy rains caused rivers to overflow, sending tides of muddy water through densely populated city suburbs, drowning people in cars and underground car parks, and collapsing homes.

A total of 47 schools in 14 affected municipalities reopened to more than 22,000 children on Monday, the region’s education department said. Last week, it said it expected around 70% of students in the worst-affected areas to return this week.

“The schools that have opened their doors today have followed cleaning and disinfection protocols to ensure maximum safety for students, teachers and staff,” it added.

But the regional teachers’ union STEPV said it believed that the numbers returning on Monday were lower, without providing an alternative figure.

Spokesperson Marc Candela said many schools were not ready to resume lessons, adding: “Teachers and parents are cleaning the schools with their own materials such as brooms.”

Educators wanted professional cleaning crews to sanitize facilities, as was done during the COVID-19 pandemic, he said.

Parents are also worried about their children’s emotional states, said Ruben Pacheco, head of the regional federation of parents’ associations, FAMPA:

“Families are exhausted, suffering psychologically, and nothing should be decided without consulting them so as not to generate more discomfort than they’ve already suffered.”

Candela said the department had held an online course for teachers last week with recommendations for psychological care, but had not dispatched additional counselors.

Carolina Marti, head teacher at a school in Castellar-Oliveral, said it had received 60 children from neighboring towns, while five teachers were on medical leave.

She said children and teachers were struggling to reach the school as many roads remained impassable.
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A Russian airstrike on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s hometown killed a mother and her three children and left 14 people wounded, officials said Tuesday.

Interior Minister Igor Klymenko said rescue and recovery operations were complete after the residential building in Kryvyi Rig was hit a day earlier.

The office of the prosecutor general said a 32-year-old woman and children who were 10, 2 and 2 months old were killed.

In Russia’s Belgorod region, a Ukrainian drone attack started a fire at an oil depot, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov posted on the Telegram messaging app.

He said a tank caught fire and 10 fire crews responded in the Starkooskolsky District near the Ukrainian border.

The Russian defense ministry also said 13 Ukrainian drones were destroyed overnight, all in regions bordering Ukraine.

Ukraine’s air force said it shot down 46 Russian drones overnight.

In addition, Ukrainian’s military was “holding back a fairly large grouping of Russian troops – 50,000 of the occupier’s army personnel,” in the Kursk region, Zelenskyy said in his address to the nation Monday.

“Our forces’ strikes on Russian arsenals have reduced the amount of artillery used by the occupier, and this is noticeable at the front. That is why we need decisions from our partners – America, Britain, Germany – on long-range capabilities,” Zelenskyy said. “This is vital. The further our missiles and drones can hit, the less real combat capability Russia will have.”

North Korea defense pact

The forces in Kursk include 11,000 North Korean troops deployed by Russia to Kursk, Zelenskyy has said, although Moscow will neither confirm nor deny their involvement.

State media in North Korea reported that country ratified a defense agreement with Russia on Tuesday, formalizing months of deepening security ties.

The deal “was ratified as a decree” of leader Kim Jong Un, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said Tuesday.

The notice comes after Russian lawmakers voted unanimously last week to ratify the deal, which President Vladimir Putin later signed.

“The treaty will take effect from the day when both sides exchanged the ratification instruments,” KCNA said.

Putin and Kim signed the strategic pact in June, during Putin’s visit to North Korea. 

Material from The Associated Press, Reuters and Agence France-Presse was used in this report.
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LONDON — The head of the Church of England, spiritual leader of the global Anglican Communion, is under pressure to resign after an investigation found that he failed to inform police about serial physical and sexual abuse by a volunteer at Christian summer camps as soon as he became aware of it.

Some members of the General Synod, the church’s national assembly, have started a petition calling on Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby to step down, saying he had “lost the confidence of his clergy.” The petition had garnered more than 1,800 signatures on Change.org by late morning London time on Monday.

Compounding the pressure, a senior cleric added her voice to those who believe he should resign. Helen-Ann Hartley, the bishop of Newcastle, told the BBC that Welby’s position is “untenable.”

Calls for Welby’s resignation have grown since Thursday, when the church released the results of an independent review into John Smyth, who sexually, psychologically and physically abused about 30 boys and young men in the United Kingdom and 85 in Africa over five decades.

The 251-page report concluded that Welby failed to report Smyth to authorities when he was informed of the abuse in August 2013, soon after he became Archbishop of Canterbury.

Welby last week took responsibility for not ensuring that the allegations were pursued as “energetically” as they should have been after he learned of the abuse but said he had decided not to resign.

On Monday, his office issued a statement reiterating Welby’s “horror at the scale of John Smyth’s egregious abuse.”

“As he has said, he had no awareness or suspicion of the allegations before he was told in 2013 — and therefore, having reflected, he does not intend to resign,” the statement said. “He hopes the Makin Review supports the ongoing work of building a safer church here and around the world.”

Church officials were first made aware of the abuse in 1982, when they received the results of an internal investigation into Smyth. The recipients of that report “participated in an active cover-up” to prevent its findings from coming to light, the Makin Review found.

Between 1984 and 2001, Smyth moved to Zimbabwe and subsequently relocated to South Africa. He continued to abuse boys and young men in Zimbabwe and there is evidence that the abuse continued in South Africa until he died in August 2018.

Smyth’s abuse wasn’t made public until a 2017 investigation by Britain’s Channel 4 television, which led Hampshire Police to start an investigation. Police were planning to question Smyth at the time of his death and had been preparing to extradite him.

The Makin Review found that if Smyth had been reported to police in 2013, it could have helped to uncover the truth, prevented further abuse and led to a possible criminal conviction.

“In effect, three and a half years was lost, a time within which John Smyth could have been brought to justice and any abuse he was committing in South Africa discovered and stopped,” the review found.

The Archbishop of Canterbury is the head of the Church of England and is seen as the spiritual leader of the Anglican Communion, which has more than 85 million members in 165 countries. He is considered first among equals with respect to the communion’s other primates.
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AMSTERDAM — The International Criminal Court’s governing body will launch an external probe into its chief prosecutor Karim Khan over alleged sexual misconduct, it said in a statement on Monday, confirming a previous report by Reuters.

“An external investigation is … being pursued in order to ensure a fully independent, impartial and fair process,” the statement said, also calling upon all parties to cooperate fully.

Khan said in a statement that he would stay on in his key function of overseeing investigations into alleged war crimes, including in the Israel-Gaza conflict, while any issues relevant to the investigation would be handled by deputy prosecutors.

Khan has previously denied allegations of misconduct that were reported to the court’s governing body last month. At that time, he asked the court’s own internal oversight body to investigate them.

ICC judges are reviewing Khan’s May request for arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, his defense chief and Hamas leaders. Khan said the misconduct allegations aligned with a misinformation campaign against his office.

The ICC is a permanent court that can prosecute individuals for war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide and the crime of aggression in member states or by their nationals.
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