Amy Kellogg — Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced Wednesday that he is pardoning another 30 political prisoners, the third such prisoner release in the past three months.

The names of those released were not published, but the country’s most famous prisoner of conscience, prominent opposition figure Maria Kalesnikava, is not expected to be included. She was part of the troika of women including Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Veronika Tsepkalo who ran a united campaign for change against Lukashenko in the 2020 presidential election.

Even so, Kalesnikava’s sister Tanya Khomich is hoping the recent pardons are a signal to the world that Lukashenko may be ready to bargain for the freedom of other political prisoners in exchange for some sort of concessions.

Khomich also hopes that Luksashenko, who has held power in Belarus for the last 30 years, may be thinking of his own future, and could be open to appeals from Western countries to release the prisoners.

“Luksashenko doesn’t want to be forgotten once peace happens with Ukraine,” Komich told VOA. “He doesn’t want Belarus to be swallowed altogether by Russia either.”

There is mounting urgency in Kalesnikava’s case, because she and Belarus’ highest-profile prisoners have been held incommunicado for nearly 600 days. People close to them say there is a terrifying total blackout on any official details about their conditions.

Kalesnikava, along with Tsikhanouskaya’s husband Siarhei Tsikhanouski, 2022 Nobel Peace Prize winner Ales Bialiatski and others, have been denied letters, lawyer visits and phone calls, according to supporters and families.

But whispers always manage to escape prison walls, and the latest to reach Khomich is that the1.7 meter tall Kalesnikava now weighs under 45 kilograms and is unsure she will make it out of detention alive.

“Just imagine,” Khomich said. “It is the 21st century, we are in the center of Europe and someone is starving. Maria is kept incommunicado. Please don’t let her die of hunger.”

Kalesnikava, who became critically ill in prison from a perforated ulcer, needs a special diet that is not provided for her, according to her sister.

Franak Viacorka, a senior adviser to government-in-exile chief Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, feels equal urgency about freeing political prisoners.

He said the 30 names on the list were serving short terms and were in for more minor “offenses,” such as commenting or liking anti-regime posts on social media. And while he says he is happy about anyone getting out of prison, he suggested the pardons are not a sign that Lukashenko is softening his stance, but simply attempting to clean up his image.

“State propaganda advertises this as a big humanitarian gesture by the regime,” Viacorka said. “It’s Lukashenko’s act before so-called elections next year to show how human he is and that he cares about people, because even his supporters are not happy about the cruel repressions that are taking place.”

Viacorka also said international diplomatic pressure was involved in Lukashenko’s move to pardon the 30 political prisoners, but that domestic public opinion also played a role. He noted that those pardoned will not be entirely “free,” but released from prison and monitored via secret services, with some possibly blocked from leaving the country.

“Most of them were forced to write a pardon letter to Lukashenko and confess to crimes they never committed,” he said. “This is also a form of humiliation for the people, but it also shows Lukashenko very well. He wants people to recognize his power. To humiliate them and make them recognize his power.”

Despite the pardons, Viacorka says the human rights situation in Belarus has deteriorated lately, with jail terms increasing from a few to 10 or 15 years. Political prisoners are forced to wear yellow badges so that other detainees know not to talk to them in the event of a chance encounter.

“They want to break them emotionally,” Tanya Khomich said, noting that her imprisoned sister alternates between an “isolation cell” and a “punishment cell,” describing each as small fetid rooms with hole-in-the-floor toilets. A major difference, Khomich said, is that in the isolation cell, Maria Kalesnikava can have her toothbrush and soap, while in the punishment cell, she is not allowed any personal items.

With repression this intense and the Belarusian KGB vigorously and effectively monitoring electronic communications, Viacorka said, opposition activity is now happening “offline.”

“People meet in private apartments, they distribute samizdat,” he said, describing clandestinely self-published material. “There are plenty of cyber partisans too. Belarus has good hackers.”

According to Viacorka, many of these “cyber partisans” are state employees that secretly help the opposition, which provides Western countries information about what and whom in Belarus to sanction. There are also groups trying to assist Ukrainians and to keep Belarus officially out of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Still, Viacorka said the opposition in exile is actively discouraging people inside Belarus from engaging in any open political activity at this moment of chaos, with war ongoing in Ukraine.

“We shouldn’t sacrifice people lightly while we don’t have clarity,” he said. “Lukashenko makes mistakes. We want to be ready when the moment is right. Right now, we are at the peak of terror.”

And while Lukashenko’s regime has silenced Maria Kalesnikava and other opposition activists by jailing them, the Belarusian people have not forgotten these prisoners, Viacorka said.

Noting the prominent role that women play in the opposition, he added: “I see what they say about woman power. The toxic masculinity of Lukashenko versus the female empathy of our leaders is what makes our movement so sustainable.”
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Russia appears to be struggling to find buyers for its liquefied natural gas from a flagship Arctic development after the West imposed sanctions, forcing Moscow to store the gas in a huge container vessel in the Arctic Sea. Henry Ridgwell reports from London.
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Washington — The United States has charged five Russian intelligence officers and one Russian civilian in connection with a major cyberattack, described by U.S. prosecutors as the first shot in the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine.

The Justice Department unsealed the superseding indictment Thursday, accusing the Russians of carrying out the January 2022 “WhisperGate” malware attack that sought to debilitate Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure ahead of the Russian invasion the following month.

“The WhisperGate campaign included the targeting of civilian infrastructure and Ukrainian computer systems wholly unrelated to the military or national defense, that include government agencies responsible for emergency services in Ukraine, the judiciary, food safety and education, seeking to sap the morale of the Ukrainian public,” said U.S. Assistant Attorney General Matthew Olsen.

The attack “could be considered the first shot of the war,” said FBI Special Agent in Charge Bill DelBagno, speaking alongside Olsen during a news conference in Baltimore, Maryland.

DelBagno said the WhisperGate campaign also targeted the United States and dozens of NATO allies, going as far as to infiltrate a U.S. government agency based in Maryland while simultaneously accessing U.S. bank accounts.

“The FBI, along with our law enforcement partners and allies, will relentlessly hunt down and counter these threats,” he said. “This type of cyber warfare will not be tolerated. The scope of Russia’s crimes cannot be ignored.”

Thursday’s superseding indictment, the result of an FBI operation named “Toy Soldier,” builds on charges first filed in June against 22-year-old Russian Amin Stigal, a civilian accused of leveraging malware to aid Russian intelligence ahead of the invasion of Ukraine.

As part of the attack, Stigal and the agents with Unit 21955 of Russia’s Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff, or GRU, used the cyberinfrastructure of some U.S.-based companies to launch what first appeared to be ransomware attacks, but which were actually designed to wipe out critical data.

The new indictment names Stigal’s Russian GRU accomplices as Vladislav Borovkov, Denis Denisenko, Yuriy Denisov, Dmitriy Goloshubov and Nikolay Korchagin.

FBI officials said the GRU unit has also operated under the names Cadet Blizzard, Ember Bear and Dev-0586, carrying out cyberattacks on critical infrastructure across Europe, Central America and Asia.

In addition to the new charges, U.S. officials said they are offering a reward of up to $10 million for each of the Russians named in the criminal complaint.

The officials said they are also working with Interpol to serve notices that could help lead to the arrest of the six Russians.

“They are marked people,” Olsen said. “We know who they are. There’s a reward on their head, and we’re going to pursue them relentlessly.”

“The message is clear,” he said. “To the GRU, to the Russians, we are onto you.”

In addition to the charges, the FBI and its partners on Thursday issued a cybersecurity advisory telling organizations and companies to fix known vulnerabilities that could be exploited by the GRU’s Unit 21955.

The Russian Embassy in Washington has yet to respond to a VOA request for comment.

Meanwhile, some U.S. allies announced their own plans to crack down on Russian intelligence.

Estonia on Thursday announced it has attributed a 2020 cyberattack on three of its government ministries and is seeking the arrest of three members of the GRU’s Unit 21955.

“Russia’s aim was to damage national computer systems, obtain sensitive information and strike a blow against our sense of security,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in a statement.

“Estonia condemns any malign activity, including cyberactivity that threatens our institutions, our citizens and our security,” Tsahkna said.

Thursday’s charges by the U.S. against Russian agents are the latest in a series of measures by Washington to crack down on what it describes as Moscow’s malign activity.

Earlier Thursday, the U.S. Justice Department charged a U.S. television presenter for Channel One Russia and his wife with sanctions evasion.

On Wednesday, the U.S. charged two Russian nationals employed by the Kremlin-backed RT media outlet with funneling almost $10 million to a U.S.-based media company to spread pro-Russian disinformation.

The Justice Department on Wednesday also announced the takedown of 32 internet domains linked to what officials described as a separate Russian operation aimed at influencing the U.S. presidential election.

VOA’s United Nations correspondent Margaret Besheer contributed to this report.
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A new conscription law has been in force in Ukraine for more than three months, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the mobilization has been going according to plan. But studies suggest Ukrainians are ambivalent about the law. Lesia Bakalets in Kyiv looks at the reasons. Videographer: Vladyslav Smilianets
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Washington — Ukraine faces wildly different prospects under a potential Trump or Harris presidency — but analysts say it’s clear Kyiv is not waiting for November to let its fate be decided.

Still, in this ancient capital that is no stranger to the whims of foreign powers, analysts seem to view a possible re-run of a Donald Trump administration with ambivalence.

“There is a prevailing opinion that the return of Trump to the White House is not the best scenario for Ukraine,” said Oleksii Melnyk, of the foreign relations and international security program at the Razumkov Center, a research institution. “Although there are also cautious opinions that everything may not be that bad.”

Trump has said he’ll swiftly end the war, although his running mate, vice presidential candidate JD Vance, once said he “doesn’t really care” about Ukraine.

This makes a future Kamala Harris administration more of a wild card to this nation that knows Trump and President Joe Biden so well. Harris has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and represented Biden at major transatlantic security summits. But on the campaign trail, Harris has only briefly spotlighted Ukraine — and how she differs from Trump.

Trump “encouraged [Russian President Vladimir] Putin to invade our allies, said Russia could, quote, do whatever the hell they want. Five days before Russia attacked Ukraine, I met with President Zelenskyy to warn him about Russia’s plan to invade,” she said at last month’s Democratic National Convention. “I helped mobilize a global response — over 50 countries to defend against Putin’s aggression. And as president, I will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies.”

Analysts say none of this is surprising. Harris is likely to follow Biden’s “Support-Ukraine” playbook, they say, adding that Trump’s broad foreign policy pronouncements remain as vague as ever, such as Trump’s promise that he’ll end the war in one day.

“It’s not entirely clear how he’ll do that,” said Andrew Payne, a lecturer in foreign policy and security at City St. George’s, University of London. “The fear, of course, is that he’ll do it by simply abandoning Ukraine, cutting off funds and pressuring Zelenskyy into negotiations at a time when Putin would enjoy all of the bargaining leverage.”

Ukraine shows renewed confidence

But, Payne said, the battlefield has shifted with Ukrainian forces’ recent decision to strike across the border and take a bite of Russian territory.

This development is something that stuck with John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, on a recent visit there.

“Without a doubt, our chief impression was the energy and renewed confidence Ukraine’s bold strike into Russia has provided the country’s leadership and people,” Herbst wrote in the Atlantic Council late last month. “They see the seizure of more than 460 square miles of Russian territory and the capture of hundreds of Russian soldiers as a clear victory, one that has changed the international conversation from a focus on peace talks or a cease-fire in place largely on Kremlin terms; they recognize that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s notion of a cease-fire in place is now much less attractive to the Kremlin.”

Biden still a factor

While analysts widely predict that Ukraine will neither seek to hold let alone succeed in holding this land permanently, it’s a bargaining chip that will help Kyiv, whomever wins. And, Payne said, Biden could also put his hand on the scale at a pivotal stage.

“I wouldn’t be expecting any shift in the U.S. position vis-a-vis Ukraine’s military operations before November, but I would be watching between November and January — whatever the outcome — to see if there is a little bit more leash given to Kyiv,” he said.

And he said Ukraine’s leader has bolstered his relationships with European leaders and broadened his support.

Herbst also pointed to how a lame-duck Biden could give Kyiv a shot in the arm.

“Biden should also use his last months in office to reach out to Republican leaders in Congress to pass one last aid bill for Ukraine during his administration,” he wrote.

Anna Chernikova contributed to this report from Kyiv.
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LONDON — Disgraced Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein won’t face charges of indecent assault in Britain, prosecutors announced on Thursday.

The Crown Prosecution Service, which in 2022 authorized two charges of indecent assault against Weinstein, said it decided to discontinue proceedings because there was “no longer a realistic prospect of conviction.”

“We have explained our decision to all parties,” the CPS said in a statement. ”We would always encourage any potential victims of sexual assault to come forward and report to police, and we will prosecute wherever our legal test is met.”

Weinstein became the most prominent villain of the #MeToo movement in 2017 when women began to go public with accounts of his behavior. After the revelations emerged, British police said they were investigating multiple allegations of sexual assault that reportedly took place between the 1980s and 2015.

In June 2022, the Crown Prosecution Service said it had authorized London’s Metropolitan Police Service to file two charges of indecent assault against Weinstein in relation to an alleged incident that occurred in London in 1996. The victim was in her 50s at the time of the announcement.

Unlike many other countries, Britain does not have a statute of limitations for rape or sexual assault.

Weinstein, who has denied that he raped or sexually assaulted anyone, remains in custody in New York while awaiting retrial in Manhattan, prosecutors said in August.

After the retrial, he is due to start serving a 16-year sentence in California for a separate rape conviction in Los Angeles, authorities said. Weinstein was convicted in Los Angeles in 2022 while already serving a 23-year sentence in New York.

His 2020 conviction in Manhattan was thrown out earlier this year when the state’s top court ruled that the judge in the original trial unfairly allowed testimony against Weinstein based on allegations that weren’t part of the case.

Weinstein, the co-founder of the Miramax entertainment company and The Weinstein Company film studio, was once one of the most powerful people in Hollywood, having produced films such as “Pulp Fiction” and “The Crying Game.”
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washington — During his recent trip to Mongolia, Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted a plan to build a pipeline from his country to China. The pipeline, which could weaken U.S. energy leverage over Beijing, would have to pass through Mongolia.

In a joint press conference held after talks in Ulaanbaatar on Tuesday, Putin said cooperation in the gas sector looks promising.

The two sides have completed drawing up documents to design the Soyuz Vostok gas pipeline extension in Mongolia and it is “at the stage of state expert appraisal and assessment,” Putin said.

New export market

The Soyuz Vostok gas pipeline extension is part of the Power of Siberia 2 (PS-2) pipeline. The PS-2 pipeline would transport about 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas annually to China when completed.

It is seen as an effort by Moscow to divert gas that had been exported to Europe to Asia after the Nord Stream 1 pipeline under the Baltic Sea was damaged by explosions last year.

Russia uses the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline to deliver gas to China, exporting 22.7 bcm in 2023. It aims to raise the supplies to 38 bcm annually by 2025.

“China is really Russia’s option to find a customer for a sizable portion of the pipeline gas it previously sent to Europe,” said Erica Downs, a senior research scholar focusing on Chinese energy markets at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.

“Putin will continue to champion the project and look for ways to characterize any discussion of the project with Mongolian officials as progress,” she continued.

Beijing and Moscow have been in talks for years over PS-2, but a final agreement has not been reached. Mongolia also has not made a final approval for the pipeline to pass through its land.

“The pipeline, if built, would reduce U.S. LNG [liquefied natural gas] exports to China,” further weakening U.S. energy leverage over China that is already declining, said Joseph Webster, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center.

Beijing seeks to reduce foreign energy dependence by “replacing imports with indigenously produced energy” including solar, wind, and nuclear energy, Webster said.

A report by the U.S. Congressional Research Service on Aug. 28 said, “PS-2 could strengthen China’s bargaining position” with the U.S. if it receives additional Russian natural gas. The U.S. has been the sixth largest exporter of LNG to China between 2016 and 2023, the report noted.

The report said PS-2 could also help Russia avoid sanctions imposed by the West because “PS-2 would involve pipeline trade of natural gas” and “no existing sanctions would impact this trade.”

Renewed push

Putin made an extra effort to promote the pipeline deal at the press conference with Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh.

He said Russia and Mongolia are “not only talking about the transit of Russian gas across Mongolia” but “the potential delivery of gas to Mongolian consumers.”

Ahead of the talks, Putin said Mongolia initially “preferred to limit themselves to being just a transit country” for the pipeline but is now considering a deal to obtain “cheap pipeline gas to support the development of their economy and infrastructure.”

Putin made the comments in a written interview with Mongolia’s Onoodor newspaper, according to the Kremlin on Monday.

Putin’s renewed push to boost PS2 came after Mongolia in August excluded the pipeline project in its national development plan through 2028.

Diana Furchtgott-Roth, director of the Center for Energy, Climate and Environment at the Heritage Foundation, said Putin made the remarks “to project strength” and because he “needs a market for his oil.”

“He wants to see what the West says,” and also “to see whether Mongolia changes its mind,” but the pipeline deal is still incomplete “until we get confirmation from Mongolia,” she said.

Khurelsukh did not confirm in his statements in the bilateral talks with Putin whether he agreed to allow the pipeline deal to proceed.

In a series of documents signed on Tuesday, Russia and Mongolia made agreements on the supplies of oil, petroleum products, and aviation fuel but did not mention any agreements on the pipeline deal.

China-Russia competition

Mongolia is heavily dependent on Russian energy, importing 95% of its petroleum products and more than 20% of electricity. A spokesperson for the Mongolian government told Politico on Tuesday that is why it did not arrest Putin when he was in the country.

The International Criminal Court issued a warrant for Putin’s arrest for crimes committed in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As a member country of the ICC, Mongolia was obligated to arrest him.

“Mongolia probably does not have to make a final decision about Power of Siberia 2 anytime soon because China is in no hurry to move forward with the project,” Downs said.

“The fact that Mongolia did not include Power of Siberia 2 in its next four-year spending plan indicates that it does not expect the project to move off the drawing board before 2028,” she said.

Russia also has been in talks with China about the project in recent months.

In May, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Beijing and Moscow are expected to sign a contract on the PS-2 gas pipeline “in the near future.”

But the pipeline deal between the two remained stalled over pricing demands by Beijing, the Financial Times reported in June.

On Wednesday, Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui apparently told the Russian News Agency Tass on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok that Beijing and Moscow would eventually launch PS-2 despite difficulties surrounding the project.

“China always drives a hard bargain on the pricing of gas imports and wants to control as much as possible of the transportation network involved in its imports and exports,” said Thomas Duesterberg, senior fellow at Hudson Institute.

“Russia and China compete over influence in Mongolia, and the Russo-Mongolian deal is subject to close scrutiny because of these factors, and that likely explains the failure at this time to reach a deal,” he added.

Chinese Vice President Han Zheng will visit Mongolia from Sept. 4 to 8 after attending the Eastern Economic Forum held in Vladivostok, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced on Tuesday.

It is uncertain, however, whether Beijing and Ulaanbaatar will discuss the PS-2 pipeline project.
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