LONDON — Russia’s tanks rolled across the Ukrainian border three years ago this month, triggering the worst conflict on European soil since World War II. Ukraine has resisted the full-scale invasion largely thanks to the support of the United States and Europe. 

But on the frozen front lines, the war grinds on — and Russia’s forces are slowly edging forward.  

“Every day, it pushes back the Ukrainian front line somewhere by a kilometer or so. My judgment is that it could continue to do that over the rest of this year,” said Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. 

“We must remember this is a terrible war. My judgment is that over a million people have been killed or seriously wounded. Now the balance of casualties is probably in Ukraine’s favor. A figure of 700,000 or 800,000 Russian casualties seems credible to me. President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy says Ukraine has only suffered 48,000 killed. That seems implausibly low to me,” Barry told Agence France-Presse. 

Europe excluded 

As the war enters its fourth year, Europe and Ukraine fear they are being excluded from deciding their own fate. Behind the scenes, the geopolitical forces that are shaping the conflict appear to be changing fast.  

Russia and the United States began peace talks this week in Saudi Arabia. Ukraine and Europe were not invited.  

“There will be some very significant alarm in European capitals about what might be discussed with regards to the security of their continent, their whole region,” said David Blagden, associate professor of international security at the University of Exeter. 

“One sort of potentially really bad outcome for European capitals is to discover that the Americans have basically put them on the hook for attempting to do some sort of peacekeeping mission in Ukraine or whatever without their say-so,” he told Reuters.  

Peacekeepers 

Britain and France have already said they may be willing to contribute to a peacekeeping force in Ukraine, a requirement of an estimated 100,000 troops.  

There are deep concerns over the potential risks of sending peacekeeping troops, according to Armida van Rij, head of the Europe program at London’s Chatham House. 

“The U.S. seemed to have taken away NATO’s Article 5 protection [on collective self-defense] for any troops that would be put in Ukraine. That means that they would not be protected, so that deterrent effect is gone. We know that Russia tends to break agreements. It has a long history of doing that under [President Vladimir] Putin and previous presidents. So, it is quite likely that Russia may well break the terms of any ceasefire or peace agreement that may come …  and then the question is, ‘OK, so what do the Europeans then do in response?’ That might put them in direct confrontation with Russia, which is a terrifying thought,” van Rij told VOA. 

Defense spending 

The European Union says it has provided around $145 billion in military, financial, humanitarian and refugee aid to Ukraine over the past three years, more than half the total global assistance for Kyiv. 

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said this month that European security will no longer be a priority, and Washington is demanding NATO allies increase their defense spending. 

“Where that money’s going to come from is a key question,” said van Rij. “The European Commission seems open to allowing some flexibility to their fiscal rules, which will make it a little bit easier for countries to spend on defense. But all of that still takes time, so it’s still going to be really difficult.” 

Hard decisions will have profound implications for Europe, according to British Defense Secretary John Healey.  

“The decisions that we make right now over the coming weeks will not only define the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine, but the security of our world for a generation to come,” Healey said in a speech Tuesday in London. 
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