WASHINGTON — On the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine earlier this week, Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed Beijing’s “no limits” partnership with Moscow in a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to Chinese state media.

“China-Russia relations have strong internal driving force and unique strategic value,” Xi said, according to the official readout from state media. He also called Russia a “true friend” and a “good neighbor.”

The sentiment is not new. Moscow and Beijing have long touted the strength and long-term nature of their relationship.

But according to a new report from Filter Labs, a U.S.-based political research and analysis company, Russia and China’s relationship may be weaker than they want the rest of the world to believe.

“Their partnership is vulnerable,” Filter Labs founder Jonathan Teubner told VOA. “This ‘no limits’ partnership is much more complicated.”

‘Infused with doubt’

While the governments and state-run media from both countries work to project the image of a strong partnership, their relationship may be underpinned by more tension, mistrust and competing interests than previously thought, according to an extensive analysis of news media and social media posts by Filter Labs.

“The axis is infused with doubt, ripe for disruption,” the report said.

Teubner added, “The monolith theory of the China-Russia relationship isn’t necessarily the way it has to be.”

But not all experts agree that the Russia-China relationship is fragile.

“The China-Russia relationship continues to deepen and widen, and occasional disagreements are dwarfed by the scale and momentum of their strategic cooperation,” Robert Blackwill and Richard Fontaine wrote in a 2024 Council on Foreign Relations report.

From the Chinese perspective, according to the Filter Labs report, there are doubts over the true resilience of Russia’s economy, whether Russia’s military is as strong as it says it is, and what Russia’s true intentions are in the long term.

Meanwhile, says Filter Labs, Russian doubts pertain to quality concerns about Chinese goods, how militarily committed China actually is to Russia, and whether Chinese investment in Russia is really that substantial.

Chinese state media is generally positive about the state of the Russian economy and often criticizes Western sanctions.

However, Chinese netizens are increasingly worried about the impact that secondary sanctions could have on China.

The United States has threatened to use secondary sanctions against Chinese businesses viewed as engaging with Russia, pushing some Chinese netizens to weigh the value of China’s relationship with Russia against its ability to trade with the United States.

Once those sanctions are enforced on China, Teubner predicts, it will lead to changes in the Russia-China relationship.

“The sanctions on Russia actually have a pretty important countering Chinese effect, too,” said Teubner, who thinks the sanctions are the biggest source of friction between Beijing and Moscow.

Quality concerns

Meanwhile, the most common doubt among Russians about China pertains to quality concerns about Chinese goods, according to the report. In Russia, Chinese goods have a reputation for being affordable but of poor quality.

“We see more persistent complaints about Chinese goods,” Teubner said.

“That’s paired with Russian anxiety over pairing itself so deeply to China,” Teubner added. “That comes through very strongly in Russian anxieties toward being subordinated to the Chinese economy.”

One consequence of Russia’s war in Ukraine has been that it has pushed Russia and China closer together, prompting some governments to default to treating the autocratic duo as a bloc, according to Teubner.

“It will increasingly be that way unless we do something to keep them apart,” Teubner said.

The report recommends that the United States and its allies and partners take advantage of the fault lines to drive a wedge between Russia and China.
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